A closer look at the evil count ; )

My evil count, which should hurt bears and bulls, is the darkgreen one:

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3-GBy1lBpLsQiHiU0S_gOHl3xga14WZ1Pzne8Bou-OXxL1RBI0-aLNEFxexk68lWLgz1LC6pa_EMiIpJtlHFmHrmLQl0Bi27WbRs1arzycDSC7799vP72WrD5Kg3QkAu5Zen3bPkReq0/s1600-h/spxlong20072009.jpg

Last Friday, when I was reading the new post on Slope of Hope, I suddenly realized that the pattern from the stock market crash in 1929 corresponds exactly with the current bear market (and its rally).

The bear market rally after the stock market crash in 1929: (Thanks again Tim, that I can use your charts ; ))

The current rally (weekly):

I find this correlation amazing! In 1929 we got a very sharp rally towards the 38% retracement level. After that was reached early December the market turned south again till Christmas before it rallied for another four months to reach the 50% retracement level.

Comparing today's chart with the chart from 1929 I think we are in early December before the first big correction took place. We got a nice and sharp rally and nearly reached the 38% level. Thus I think we should see quite a strong correction over the next four weeks to about 820-850 and therefore trap all the bears that will have opened their short positions after the market plunged through 870. What should follow afterwards is a second rally to the 50% level over the next months to trap all the bulls that will be sreaming: "New Bull Market".

You all know what follows in the end if this patterns continues to correspond:

Top in sight...

It seems as the market is in wave 5 of 5 of ??. Thus a correction or even a new downtrend should start early next week.

Take a look at my long term chart to get a better overview:

http://ew-analysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/some-possibilities.html

The bears are back!

: P

I changed my long term count for the DAX completely: The top in June was Intermediate (A) of Primary [B]. After that, the DAX corrected to 4500 in Intermediate (B). At the beginning of last week, Intermediate (C) started with a final target of 6100 later this or at any time next year. Short term, it seems that the first wave of (C) is completed.

Keep in mind that the DAX hasn't surpassed the high in June yet. Thus the bearish count is technically still valid. But as soon as the DAX makes a new high(i.e. >5177.5), this bullish count should be underway.

I see something you do see and the color of it is green, green, green, green, green, green and green

Yep, the stock market ; ). 7 up days in a row, unbelievable!

Since the long and short term counts haven't changed, I just wanted to show you the following chart ; ):

some possibilities

I'm still sticking by my count that the market is in Intermediate (4) of Primary [1] . If the market makes a new high (>956) I will move the low for Intermediate (3) to the November low ato 740.

But if the coming down waves look corrective or if the market pushs higher to >1100 without any correction I will switch to one of my alternate counts.

What I don't like is EWI's count. I just don't believe that the market will already begin a nasty Primary [3].

holy shit! 75 points in 4 days!

blue scenario R.I.P.

: )


The blue count is now invalid with today's rally over 932 points in the SPX.

I expect the SPX to surpass the previous high at 956 in the coming weeks. The Hugo pivot at 1025 should provide the next resistance for the market.

Sunday chart (blue now invalid, orange favourite):

sell off tutorial : ))

-short term update SPX-

As you know I think the market is in Intermediate (5) down to complete Primary A/1 between 550 and 700. Thus I count the rally from March to June as an Intermediate (4) and compared it with Intermediate (2):

In both cases the rally was stopped by the EMA200. After that the SPX broke the SMA29, which provided support during the rally, and retested it shortly after. Finally the market breached the SMA75 (resistance line for corrective Minor waves) to start a new downtrend.

Bearish counts

Intermediate (5)

The market completed Intermediate (4) at 956 and is now in Minute [3] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (5). Since it's a fifth wave it's possible that it will form an ending diagonal (ED). Each subwave of an ED consists of three waves. Thus the market could make three waves down to ~800 so that everybody will be thinking: "Great! Only three waves down! The correction must be over. This time I won't miss the rally, I'm gonna sell my house tomorrow and buy some calls!". Unfortunately the following rally (Minor 2) will stop around 880 before Minor 3 will start and go way below 800.

Intermediate (X)

956 was the top of the first zigzag ((W)). The market is now in Intermediate (X) (target ~800) before the second zigzag (Intermediate (Y)) should carry the market to new highs.

Bullish count

Intermediate (Y)

The SPX has already completed Intermediate (X) and is now in Intermediate (Y). If the market falls below 869 this count is invalid.

The correction could be over...

... but I still prefer the bearish count ; )

It's getting interesting.. : )

Possibly already in wave (iii):

(alt: still in wave (ii))

wave (i) should be over

Expecting a wave (ii) early next week, which should retrace 38-62% of wave (i).

Nice weekend : D

The DAX should go down soon...

-short term update DAX-