Monday, September 28, 2009

The very last up wave

We might be in the very last wave of this Primary wave before the market starts to collapse.

SPX: Last weekend, I wrote that I expect a correction from higher levels. This actually happened; the market moved higher till Wednesday, corrected after the FED announcement and nearly reached the wave [i] high @1040.

So far, I labeled the low on Friday as a wave [iv], thus I expect a last try of the bulls to avoid the unavoidable and reach 1090 or 1120 before the collaps begins. If the market should drop below the wave [i] high today I'mma switch my two counts (i.e., the alternative count will be my primary one and vice versa ; ))

Primary count: at the beginning of [v] of C of (Y) of [2]/[B]
Alternative count: P2/B has already peaked at 1080


DAX: The DAX is making a really nice Ending Diagonal (ED). So far, I can only count 4 waves, thus I expect a last a-b-c move to the upside to complete the ED. After that, this rally should be over and we should see new lows next year.

Primary count: in [v] of C of (Y) of [2]/[B]
Alternative count: P2/B has already peaked



USD: I think the USD has bottomed and is now ready to take-off : D. As you can see in my last post about the USD/CHF I preferred the 1,02 area as a possible bottom. It reached 1,0188 last week, thus I think the low is in. This count will be correct as long as it doesn't make new lows.

Primary count: at the beginning of Primary [C] up
Alternative count: still in the last down wave