Happy New Year!

That's about what we got today ; )

... or still underway?

SPX: Since the market almost dropped to the possible wave iv low (see my last chart) it's also possible that wave iv is still underway:

Not what I hoped for the last day of the year.. but if they don't wanna close green there's nothing I can do... : )


Edit (10:40 AM): We are now below the point where I thought wave iv had ended. So, the count above looks really nice. Wave (A) should bottom anytime soon. Then wave (B) might take us back to 1125/26 and afterwards wave (C) should complete wave iv around 1118/19.


Edit (11:20 AM): May be this was it. (A)-(B)-(C) completed. (It could also be just wave (A)) Whatsoever, I'm not going to try and pick the bottom of wave iv.

I might chime in later today after the close. If not expect the next update to come in the new year.


Happy New Year! : D

Elliott Wave Update 30 December 2009 ~ Wave iv already finished?

SPX: The market opened lower and started to rally when the PMI was reported. After closing the gap it randomly moved up and down for the rest of the day. All in all a very interesting trading day...

When I posted the triangle yesterday I first thought that this is some part of wave [X]. But since the SPX broke the pattern to the upside and not to the downside as expected wave iv might have already finished.

A new high today would very likely confirm that wave v started. I expect wave v to end when it hits the middle trendline in early January.

Triangle?

Possible triangle:

Short term count update

The market dropped below 1123,5. Hence, my short term count from yesterday was wrong. It seems as I was a bit too bullish... : )

I'm going to post a new count in a few minutes.

May be I was right in the beginning to place wave (b) at 1086 on December 12th. What I don't like is that wave iii is really short but since wave [5] extended in wave iii it's very likely that wave v will also extend.

Edit: I added an alternative count if the the rally right now keeps going higher and makes a new high in a few hours.

Good luck in this crazy market : D

Elliott Wave Update 29 December 2009 ~ 7 gap ups in a row!

SPX: The market gapped up (yes, again!) and began its common correction shortly after the open. Then, it just went sideways for the rest of the day an sold off into the close.

The morning rally completed submicro wave (1). After that wave (2) started and lasted for the rest of the day. So far, everything fits in with my count. However, I expected wave (3) to begin today and that obviously wasn't the case. Thus, first doubts came up whether my pretty bullish count is correct.

But may be they just wanted to see a red close after six consecutive up closes and wait with the big up move till tomorrow ; )

We'll see... If the market should drop below 1123,5 tomorrow I'm gonna post another (less bullish : )) count. But also then I expect at least one more high over the next few days.

Enjoy the last days in 09!

struggling at 1130 (so far : ))

SPX: The market gapped up (AGAIN) and finished submicro wave (1) at 1130. The current consolidation should be wave (2).

A drop below 1123,5 would invalidate my short term count while a new high would very likely confirm it.

Elliott Wave Update 28 December 2009 ~ micro wave [1] and [2] completed

SPX: The market opened higher again and hit 1130 a few minutes after the open. After that the correction began and bottomed at 1124 in the afternoon. From there the SPX rallied into the close.


As I've written in my weekly update I replaced the (b) wave. This has some consequences for the short term count: I have to raise the wave degree by one; e.g. submicro wave (1) in the old chart is microwave [1] in the new on.

So that you're not totally confused : ) I'm going to post both charts, the old one from Friday and the new one ; ) (but in fact it's exactly the same, just the wave degree is different ; ))


The old one:



The new one:



As expected on Friday the market opened higher and finished micro wave [1] shortly after the open. Then, micro wave [2] unfolded in a simple zigzag and bottomed about 90 minutes before the close.

Micro wave [3] should now be underway with a target of 1145 within the next few days.

Afternoon rally?

SPX: So far, the morning is similar to Dec 22 and 23. If that continues we should see a rally into the afternoon.


Edit: Forget it.. let's concentrate on the Elliott Wave count. So far, we got an A-B-C down and might have already completed wave (2)

Elliott Wave Update Week 52 2009 ~ end of year rally underway

I hope you had wonderful days together with your family. : )

SPX: Even though the week was shortened the market has finally managed to break out of the channel it has been caught since early November.

I've already mentioned it several times, that I have some problems with the correct wave degree in the short term count. The reason for that is wave (b). Already in my Update for Week 51 I wasn't sure where to place (b).

As you can see in the chart there are three possible places for (b). The first (b) would make the correction a simple flat, the second one a double three and the last one a contracting triangle.

While all of these wave patterns are very common I think the most likely one is the triangle. Wave (a) lasted 11 trading days. So, let's say that wave (c) also lasts 11 trading days. Taking the triangle (b) wave low (1094 on December 18th) and adding 11 trading days we get January 5th 2010. That's exactly between the two dates I expect the top.

So, from now on, I'm going to place wave (b) at 1094. The target for wave (c) though remains the same.

Have a nice last week in 2009 ; )

Nasdaq: Top at 2340 in the first week of January 2010

Nasdaq: Nope, I'm not crazy : D. Actually, I wanted to present you with a normal Nasdaq chart and explain why it is so difficult to find the correct wave degree.

But I didn't count on Mr. Fibonacci: While I was looking at the chart I realized that there are some very nice fibonacci relationships between the waves.

So, with the aid of Mr. Fibonacci, I can tell you the date when and the price where the Nasdaq will peak:

As if it's not enough my cycle also peaks in the first week of January 2010.

Btw, if the top won't occur in that week and not around 2340 blame Mr. Fibonacci for that; and if the top will occur praise me ofc : D ^^

Edit: In the very same week Primary [2] will be 0,618*Primary [1] (time)

Elliott Wave Update 24 December 2009 ~ Merry Christmas!

SPX: The market gapped up again (the fifth day in a row!) and closed at the high of the year at 1126.48.

As it looks now, micro wave [3] started at 1116 on Wednesday. So far, I can count four waves of the first subwave, thus, submicro wave (1) is likely to finish on Monday.

I'm not completely sure if the wave degree in my count is correct. I'm gonna talk about that tomorrow/on Sunday in my weekly update.

Season's Greetings!

Elliott Wave Update 23 December 2009 ~ pre-Christmas excitement

SPX: Today was pretty similar to yesterday: gap up - new year high - 5 point drop - secondary high in the early afternoon and another smaller correction to end another very exciting trading day.

And here it is..... the most bullish count I found as a Christmas present for you : )

As it's the end of the year and everybody seems to be uber bullish, today's correction to 1116 might have already completed micro wave [2]. In this case, the market mustn't fall below 1116 and just continue to rally towards 1160ish into New Year.

I know that we're heavily overbought and all that but it's Christmas time and the Dollar looks like it has started its correction. So, anything is possible ; )

Hope you've bought all your presents ; )

Merry Christmas!

Elliott Wave Update 22 December 2009 ~ micro wave [1] topped

SPX: Right after the open the SPX made a new high at 1120 near the 50% retracement level - ...well... and that's everything one can tell about today's market action.

As mentioned in the update right after the open, micro wave [1] topped at 1120. From there the market started its correction. So far, we've seen a 5 point drop labeled as wave (A) followed by a rally in the afternoon labeled as wave (B). Tomorrow I expect wave (C) to unfold and end around the wave (4) low to complete micro wave [2].

After that, the rally should resume and continue to make new highs till the end of the year.

new year high

SPX: The SPX gapped up again and almost touched the 50% retracement at 1121.

Since Friday it has formed a nice impulse to the upside, that I think is in its final stage now. Its subwaves have some nice fibonacci relationships: wave (1) = wave (5) = 0,382*wave (3), so actually a perfect impulse with an extended third wave.

From here I expect us to drop till the end of the day or even tomorrow. Since it's a wave iii the retrace might be only shallow, so a possible target is the wave (4) low.

Elliott Wave Update 21 December 2009 ~ green X-mas

SPX: It seems as I'm not the only one who likes fractals: The market gapped up and rallied as if it was told by the fractal : )

The very short term count is not that clear. It's very possible that micro wave [1] topped today and we are in wave [2] to about 1105 till tomorrow/Wednesday. But it's also possible that the market will make a new high tomorrow morning and then start to drop.

However, it looks like we'll get green X-mas (well not outside ; )) and that the top won't come until early January 2010.

fractal power!

SPX: The fractal I posted yesterday is spot on! : D Let's hope it's not just a flash in the pan but the beginning of the end of year rally ; )

Today's high currently at 1114 near the upper channel resistance. Let's break out!

You should book a trip to the USA now and not tomorrow

USD/CHF: If you're one of them who used to import cheap US-Iphones or stuff like that to Switzerland to sell it here for good money you might have to stop it next year as the USD started a new uptrend three weeks ago. ; )

The next correction (if there will be one ; )) should be a good opportunity to buy Dollars with a stop at the low (0.99). My upside target for Primary [C] lies around 1,30 and should be reached somewhen next year or in 2011.

So, that's all for today ; )

Have a nice week, will be at home and able to post updates with charts every day from now on.

Cheers,

Hugo

Elliott Wave Update Week 51 ~ still 1160ish

SPX: Another very exciting week - so exciting that I don't even know what to tell you... Well, the most important thing was that the rally I expected didn't occur.

Already on Tuesday I mentioned that my short term count might be incorrect. Two days later I got confirmation that the count was incorrect and the rally will be delayed.

On Thursday when the markets were heading lower I changed my preferred count: The top of wave i/[1] is now at 1115 (Dec 14). From there the market corrected in a wave ii/[2]. On Friday wave ii/[2] should have bottomed and wave iii/[3] started. That's supported by this fractal.

Primary count: in Subminuette iii of (c) of [v] of C of (Y) of [B]/[2] (Look here for wave degrees)

Bullish fractal

SPX: That's the fractal I spoke of. Should the market continue to follow the fractal we should see a nice rally on Monday.

The Elliott Wave Weekend Update will follow in a few hours. ; )

Elliott Wave Update 18 December 2009 ~ getting fractal support

SPX: Another day that won't go down in stock market history... Still between 1085 and 1115, still in the channel for the sixth week now and still astonishing everybody how boring it can be to watch the stock market these days.


There is one point however, that supports my bullish count that we are finishing or have already finished wave ii/[2] and are now in the beginning of wave iii/[3]:

If you compare the market action between December 7-9 and 16-18 you can clearly see the similarity of these two fractals. So, if you look on December 10 you'll know what I expect for Monday. I'm gonna post a chart on that on Sunday evening ; )


Hope you made some nice trades this week!

Have a nice weekend ; )


Cheers,

Hugo

Elliott Wave Update 17 December 2009 ~ Still in the channel

SPX: The market couldn't break above the upper channel resistance around 1115. It turned down and is nearing the lower trendline at 1085ish again.

With today's breakdown my preferred count was invalidated. But the other count I mentioned on Tuesday looks now better than ever: Wave [1]/i was completed on Monday and since then we've got an Expanded Flat for wave [2]/ii which retraced about 62%. So all in all quite nice but since the short term waves are a bit messed up it might be better to wait for a channel break. Either a break below 1086 meaning the top is in or a break above 1116 in a wave 3 to make the top around Xmas/new year.

Charts

I was asked when I'll post charts again. Unfortunately I'm not at home this week and can't make charts. Expect the next charts in the weekend update ; )

Futures btw are looking great : D

Elliott Wave Update 15 December 2009 ~ waiting...

SPX: Today's correction closed the gap the market created on Monday and is now ready to rally on.

At the moment my preferred count is still possible:

Today's action was submicro wave (2) of [3] of iii. That would mean that tomorrow should be rally day.


However, I can see now a little different count in which we completed micro wave [1] yesterday and are now in [2]. In the end we'll get the same but the rally would just be a little bit delayed.


The magic number the market mustn't break for both counts is 1086. So, as long as it stays above I expect 1160 in the near futur.



Tomorrow is FED day btw, so expect the common increased volatility.
May be it's the perfect day for a big rally? : D

Elliott Wave Update 14 December 2009 ~ The rally started

SPX: The market is stronger than I thought. Micro wave [2] didn't reach my targets in terms of price and time. So far it looks like the correction on Friday was all we got from wave [2].

The SPX should reach 1140+ in micro wave [3] and all that within a few days possibly already by the end of this week.


That's all for now. ; )

Cheers,

Hugo

Elliott Wave Update Week 50 ~ 1160ish

SPX: I don't have much to add to yesterday's update. The bear market rally seems to be in its final stage and I still expect the top to be around Xmas.

At 1159 Intermediate wave (Y) equals (W) and at 1168 (a) has the same length as (c). So, I expect the top to be around 1160.

I'm sure you've seen some different Triple Zigzag counts for the rally since March. All I can say is that also these counts are also possible and correct. The best thing though is that also in a Triple Zigzag count a last upwave is still missing. And wave relationships suggest a top around 1160 as in my Double Zigzag count : D

Tony over at caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ wrote a very good weekend update and explained why he thinks that 1160ish should be the top. I really recommend to read it. ; )


Have a nice week,

Cheers,

Hugo

Elliott Wave Update 11 December 2009 ~ micro wave [2] underway

SPX: On Friday, the SPX gapped up again and hit some minutes after the open the middle trendline of the channel to complete micro wave [1]. After that the correction began (micro wave [2]) that should last till early next week.

Micro wave [2] should end around the 50-62% retracement level. From there wave [3] should start and hit new highs (1130-40) later next week.

Primary count: in micro wave [2] of iii of (c) of C of (Y) of Primary [B]/[2] (I suggest to look on this chart if you're not so familiar with wave degrees : D^^); 1086 mustn't be breached

From now on I will add "Elliott Wave Update Day Month Year" in every title of my daily updates. With that it's easier for you to find earlier counts by just searching the blog or the blog archive in the sidebar looking for the right date.

Have a nice weekend!

Cheers,

Hugo

5 waves up completed

With today's high at 1108 the SPX should have completed micro wave [1]. Blue wave (5) would equal blue wave (1) at 1109 so that's near enough for me to sell my position.

So, now I expect a decline to 1095-1100 to form micro wave [2].

Elliott Wave Update 10 December 2009 ~ I want my X-mas rally : D

SPX: Well..., we got the gap up but nothing more. The SPX traded the whole day within a range of only 6 points.

So far, it appears that the market is still in micro wave [1] of iii. That means that the main part of this rally ([3] of iii) should follow next week.

What concerns me a bit is that the bearish count is still alive. As I mentioned yesterday, 1119 could have been the top of wave (c) and of this bear market rally. If that's the case, the diagonal to 1086 would be a leading diagonal in the wave i position. From there the market corrected in three waves exactly to the 62% retracement level, the common level for a wave ii. So, 1084 would be wave i, 1106 wave ii and wave iii would follow tomorrow.

Primary count: in iii of (c) to new highs (1086 should hold)

Alternative count: topped at 1119 (in iii of (i) down)

Gap up!

I told ya so : )

Let's see if the market can skip the gap close and just creep higher to new highs : ).

I've just posted the Elliott Wave Labeling Key I use. If you follow Dan or Kenny you might have noticed that it's their labeling key.

Sure, I could have changed the colours so that I'd have an own key with different colours. But I thought it may be easier for everybody if all the Elliott Wave bloggers out there would use the same colours. So I set the ball rolling may be others will join...

Edit: btw, the link (Elliott Wave Labeling Key) in the sidebar on the right works now.

Edit2: added approx. duration for the important waves

Elliott Wave Labeling Key

Below you see the Elliott Wave Labeling Key I use. It's the common way of labeling the waves. However, circles can only be used in charts, so otherwise they are replaced with brackets [ ].

Wave Degree

5's with the trend ~ 3's against the trend

Approx. duration (bull/bear)

Grand Supercycle

[I] [II] [III] [IV] [V] ~ [a] [b] [c]

centuries/decades

Supercycle

(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) ~ (a) (b) (c)

decades-centuries/years-decades

Cycle

I II III IV V ~ a b c

years-decades/years

Primary

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] ~ [A] [B] [C]

years/months-years

Intermediate

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) ~ (A) (B) (C)

months-years/months

Minor

1 2 3 4 5 ~ A B C

months/weeks-months

Minute

[i] [ii] [iii] [iv] [v] ~ [a] [b] [c]

weeks-months/weeks

Minuette

(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) ~ (a) (b) (c)

Subminuette

i ii iii iv v ~ a b c

Micro

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] ~ [A] [B] [C]

Submicro

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) ~ (A) (B) (C)

Miniscule

1 2 3 4 5 ~ A B C

Note: This color combination belongs to Dan and Kenny.

Elliott Wave Update 9 December 2009 ~ That might be the start

SPX: After the market almost hit 1084 in the morning it turned back up and rallied into the close to end the day at 1096. This afternoon rally could have been the start of my long expected rally to new highs : )

The following chart supports this view:

If this pattern (some kind of a double bottom followed by a strong rally) continues to happen we should see a gap up tomorrow.

Looking at the past days, the decline from 1119 to 1086 looks a bit like a diagonal. But unfortunately this doesn't really help because it can either be a bullish ending diagonal or a bearish leading diagonal (only FED knows which one's the correct one : )).

Primary count: in (c) of [v] (last up wave)

Alternative count: already topped at 1119 (confirmation below 1029)

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD completed five waves down and is now in a corrective wave (ii), which might correct all the way up to the 62% retracement level.

A weaker dollar (rising EUR/USD) in the next few days would also support my SPX count suggesting a rally in the stock markets as I don't expect that the correlation will suddenly stop today or tomorrow.

Primary count: the Dollar bottomed (EUR/USD topped) in November and finished its first wave up (down)

Elliott Wave Update 8 December 2009 ~ no strength so far

Today the market dropped below Friday's low invalidating my very short term count from yesterday. But as long as the SPX stays above 1084 I will stick to my count, which says that pink wave (b) ended at 1084 last week wave i of (c) topped at 1119 on Friday.

So, tomorrow we should finally get the promised rally to a new high above 1120. Should the market drop below 1084 however I'll have to change my count and I might replace the pink wave (b) low or even mark 1119 as THE top.

Have to wait for the waves first ; )

Good luck!

Elliott Wave Update 7 December 2009 ~ Wave (c) not yet confirmed

Hi guys

Im now able to write daily updates again :) (unfortunately without pictures)

as mentioned in the weekend update wave (c) is possibly underway. It looks like today's high was wave (1) of 1 of iii of (c) and today's low wave (2). That means that wave (3) to 1125 should follow tomorrow.

Elliott Wave Update Week 49 2009 ~ The beginning of the X-mas rally

SPX: Quite a volatile week especially on Thursday and Friday with two strong selloffs. Even though the market was able to close the week above 1100 for the first time this year.

My Elliott Wave count is still spot on for the second week in a row. : ) As expected last weekend the rally resumed and made a new high near the 50% retracement level. I count last week's rally from 1084 to 1119 as a wave i of (c) and the drop from 1119 to 1097 (a perfect 62% retracement of wave i) as a wave ii. So, next week wave iii should follow and reach 1150+.

Although I expect the top to be around 1160 it's also possible that 1119 was the top as you might have seen it on other blogs. A first indication that the top is in would be a drop below 1084 and a confirmation below 1029.

That's my count for the whole bear market rally so far: A double zigzag. At 1158 wave (Y) would equal wave (W).

Primary count: in iii of (c) of [v] of C of (Y) of [B] - target 1160ish

Alternative count: the market has topped at 1119

USD: For the second time after August the Elliott Wave count for the Dollar looks like it has completed 5 waves down. That would mean that the Dollar bottomed in late November and is now in the early stage of its last rally before it will totally collaps. As soon as this rally is confirmed it should last several months or even years.

This chart shows why I think that the top is still some weeks away. About one year ago the USD bottomed in mid December. That's about three weeks before the market topped in early January. We might get the same picture this year with a bottom in the Dollar in late November and a top in the markets in mid-late December.

Have a nice week guys ; )