I'm back

Just landed in Zurich (Switzerland).

It's already night here, so I won't post charts and answer your mails until tomorrow morning.

Have a nice weekend.

Hugo

S&P 500 ~ Fractal 27 April 2010

Just a short update of the "2007-fractal"...

I added dates in the charts. I think it's now a bit easier to understand.. : )

Just compare the following chart with a chart from mid January 2010 to today and you should see the similarities.




In 2007 we got a 50-point-decline over three days, so I expect the same today - a decline to 1170 until the end of the week.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count Week 16 2010

Just a short update of what I expect for the coming week:



(Thanks for this chart ; ))

The expanding ED count is still my preferred one and I expect the top of this fifth wave early next week around 1220-1225.

Although it's hard to imagine the market should then decline for the rest of the week, down to around 1170.

This scenario gets support of the fractal I posted a week ago in this post.

S&P 500 ~ Elliot Wave Count 23 April 2010

Hi guys,

Right now I'm sitting in a hotel in Gran Canaria and enjoying my vacation : )

I'm staying here for another week so until the end of April I'll post less frequently on my blog.


Yesterday, before the US markets opened I recieved an updated ED count and so far the market acted perfectly on it:




I still expect the market to hit 1220 before it turns again. If we don't see a sell off today the chances will be good to get the rally to 1220 on Monday.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 20 April 2010

The 1220 area is still my target:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 19 April 2010

My preferred count:



We should see a new highs later this week (target 1219-25). (The SPX mustn't drop below 1183.68).

As if I haven't already posted enough different wave counts in my weekly update I recieved a fourth one which I quite like.

The Expanding Ending Diagonal:

He's counting the rally from the Feb lows as a corrective wave. So, adapted to my count his green C wave would be a fifth wave in my count. This count explains all the corrective waves we had since the triangle breakout.

The target for this pattern is also in the 1220 area, the only difference is that we would see three waves to 1220ish instead of five.

S&P 500 ~ Fractal 18 April 2010

I've already mentioned this fractal last weekend, but I'd like to go into detail:

The chart on the left shows a fractal from 2007 and the one on the right is from today.

1 - the market tops.

2 - 14/15 trading days later: the market has declined about 100 points and found support at the MA.

3 - the market rallied and after a small correction the MA 29 provided support.

4 - ~50 trading days ago the market started its rally. In 2007 the rally had a length of 168.45 points - the current rally was only 0.97 longer!

5 - From that top the market started a 1-day-correction. In 2007 the correction had a length of 27.25 points. On Friday, the sell off was only 0.1 points shorter!

Should this correlation continue the market should rally next week and make new uptrend highs. In 2007 the market rallied 35.38 points. If the SPX rallies the same amount today we should hit 1222, just a few points below the 62 % retracement level.

Have a nice week!

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count Week 15 2010

So far, the trendline and the hourly MA 76 has hold. This MA has provided support during the entire rally from the Feb lows (red circles).

After the sell off on Friday, we got a few possibe wave counts:

- Either wave 5 topped at 1214 and we are in a bigger correction down to the low 1100's

- or only wave 3 topped an the Friday low was wave 4 or only wave [a] of 4.

I'm gonna show a very interesting fractal later ; )

SPX ~ Intraday Update 16 April 2010

Well... that is definitively not wave iv : )

So, after all, the Ending Diagonal seems to be the right count.

The move from the high looks motive, so, even if it's only a wave 4 (and not the start of a new downtrend) we should see another motive wave down.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 15 April 2010

Wave iv may be forming a triangle:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 15 April 2010

Wave iii may have topped at 1214:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 14 April 2010

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 14 April 2010

The SPX is trading at 1208 right now and the ED is still possible but it looks very ugly.

Thus, I still prefer the count with an upside target of 1220-40.

Silver long term ~ 14 April 2010

(For the short term count click here)

I think that Silver is in Primary wave [5] of an impulse that began in 2001.

Primary [1] was relatively short but it seems to be characteristic of this impulse to have short first waves and extended third and fifth waves (e.g. wave [1], wave (1) of [3] and wave 1 of (3)).

Additionally second waves were often sideways corrections and fourth waves zigzags.

As said above fifth waves were often extended and with the current wave structure we have in Silver it looks like Primary [5] will also extend.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count 13 April 2010

As I've already mentioned during the day I see now an alternative count (ED, see below) but I still prefer the count with a target of 1220-40 for wave [v].

While there should be a big rally tomorrow according to my preferred count, the alternative one needs only one more wave up to complete the diagonal.

With Intel being up 4 % AH we may see indeed a nice rally tomorrow.

SPX ~ Intraday Update 13 April 2010

Today's decline was stronger than I expected and has almost invalidated my preferred count:



I can see now an alternative: May be the following Ending Diagonal is unfolding:

USD ~ Elliott Wave Count 12 April 2010

I posted this count early April and so far the Dollar has obeyed pretty well... : )

Here's an updated chart:

I think that Intermediate wave (2) will unfold in a simple zigzag. Wave A may bottom around the wave 4 low and wave C around the 50 % retracement and the wave 1 high.

Charles Nenner: Roadmap for 2010/11

(For my weekend updates click here for the SPX and here for Silver)

--------------

I've just found a nice interview with Mr Cycle himself: Charles Nenner.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/197657-charles-nenner-s-trends-and-trades-investor-s-roadmap-for-2010-2011

About the stock market he says: a top in the third week of April (next week), a correction in May/June followed by another rally into August.

This is very interesting. In today's post I wrote that fractal 2 looks very similar to today.

If this fractal continues we should see a high next week, some sideways action in May, another slightly higher high early June a big correction in June/July and then another big rally into the first week of September, so, very similar to what Charles Nenner expects.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count Week 14 2010

Since cycles turned up last week I expected the indices to rise this week. Well, that's what it did: The SPX gained 1.5 % - This is the sixth consecutive week the market closes up.

In the past ten years this happened only four times:

1 - In 2003/04 the market rose for 9 consecutive weeks!

2 - In 2007 for 7 weeks - this situation looks very similar to today (fractal? : )):

3 - Last year, 6 weeks - after the March low.

4 - today, 6 weeks so far.

For the medium term I have two slightly different counts. The first aligns very well with the fractal I posted above. The market would be in wave [v] of 3 of (5) with a target for (5) of 1225ish somewhen in May. The second one has us already in wave 5 of (5) with the same target but in mid/late April.

Short term the market seems to be in a third of a third wave (iii of (iii) of [v] of 3 or (iii) of [iii] of 5, depending on the count), thus we should see a nice rally next week.

If you've missed my Silver update you can find it here: http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/04/silver-elliott-wave-count-week-14-2010.html

Have a nice week!

Edit: A short cycle update: One of my cycles tops next week and the other one in mid May, so both dates coincide with the two counts I posted above.

Silver ~ Elliott Wave Count Week 14 2010

As expected in last weekend's post Silver continued its rally and gained about 3 % this week.

Since I only posted fractals last week I'd like to show you my Elliott Wave count for Silver:

I think that Silver is in wave [iii] of Minor 3. A third wave is usually 1.62 times as long as the first wave. Thus, this gives us a target for wave [iii] of about 21.5, right at the 2008 high.

Should it decline below the low of wave [ii] something else is underway.

Gonna post a count for the SPX and the Dollar tomorrow. ; )

DOW 11,000

The Dow reached 11,000 today! And the SPX closed only a few points below 1200 - the rally should continue next week.

Silver had also a very nice rally this week and should be in a third wave up.

Gonna post charts later today.

Elliott Wave Count Easter 2010

Dollar: This is my primary count for the Dollar:



I think that the first wave up is completed and we are in wave (2) down. A decline below 79,51 confirms this. It's possible though that we are still in wave 5 of (1). But for this scenario we need a big rally next week above the March high.


Silver: I've spotted a very nice fractal:




So, there should be a big rally in Silver next week.

While I'm writing this I've spotted another fractal. Unfortunately these two fractals are contradictory, one is bullish short term the other one bearish (both are bullish medium term though). But I prefer the bullish case since many other metals are breaking out to the upside.




SPX: From mid March I've been expecting a decline into early April. What we've seen so far looks more like a consolidation than a sell off. Since cycles are turning up again we may see another leg up possibly to 1225ish.