The market gapped up today and hit 1235 for the second time this week. It failed to breach it though, so both scenarios are still possible.
Since the tape looks very bullish though I'm tending to the more bullish count (the "September count"):
There's even a nice little inverse H&S forming. If we break 1235 the iH&S target is 1250, right in my first target area.
Yes, I know I've posted this chart every day this week... : ) but there was also an inverse H&S in September... (LS red [4], H&RS pink (iv))