As said intraday I thought we'd see a new high today. Pre-market it looked good when the ES was trading above 1336, twelve hours later though the ES is almost 40 handles lower at 1297.5.
If you have a look at April 2010 you can see some similarities to today. The first big down day was almost fully retraced (~75% in April 10 and Feb 11). Another big down day followed which was again almost fully retraced. The third down day breached all the support and I think you remember what followed in May.
If this pattern continues we should see an upday tomorrow.
Should we decline further though and close below 1290 I think the top is in and a bigger correction towards 1200ish should be underway.
