S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 29 April 2011

The SPX has rallied 70 handles within less than two weeks and has breached the neckline of the inverse H&S earlier this week:

I hope all of you could participate in this big move and made tons of money ; )


I'll post updates on the SPX (monthly outlook on May), the EUR/USD, the DXY, Gold and Silver over the weekend and reply to your emails tomorrow morning.


Have a nice weekend.

Update ~ 28 April 2011

A lot happened this week so far. The SPX rallied to a new high thus 1430ish is now very likely in my opinion.

Silver hit 50$ and had its biggest correction since months and all that happened within a day.

The 1.45ish support held in the EUR/USD and we're already approachin the 1.5ish target.


So, many things to talk about and post charts. I should have access to a computer tomorrow evening (latest Sat morning) so expect my next post with many charts then. ; )

S&P 500, EUR/USD, Gold & Silver ~ Easter Update 2011

S&P 500


(Reposting the Thursday update:)


The SPX is up again today and now right at the neckline of the inverse H&S.


As mentioned a few times already a break above the 1340ish area should lead to a rally to way above 1400.

It looks like wave [i] of 3 will be completed very soon. A mild correction should follow (wave [ii]) before wave [iii] of 3 to 1400+ will unfold.

On Wednesday we got a big upday after a correction. In the past this was usually a sign that a big rally was coming:

EUR/USD

(Reposting the Thursday update:)


(Read my last EUR/USD update here)

As said last weekend the 1.425ish area should be a strong support level.


Early this week the EUR/USD tested the aforementioned level and since then we've seen a huge rally to over 1.46.

As long as we stay within the channel I still expect to see a 1.5x handle later this year.


Gold & Silver


Not much to say here. As written last weekend only a break below the uptrendline would change the medium term picture for gold:

The same with silver. The white medal is approaching the all time high around 50 $. Let's see if we get a correction there or just rally further.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 21 April 2011

(Read my last EUR/USD update here)

As said last weekend the 1.425ish area should be a strong support level.

Early this week the EUR/USD tested the aforementioned level and since then we've seen a huge rally to over 1.46.

As long as we stay within the channel I still expect to see a 1.5x handle later this year.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 21 April 2011

The SPX is up again today and now right at the neckline of the inverse H&S.

As mentioned a few times already a break above the 1340ish area should lead to a rally to way above 1400.

It looks like wave [i] of 3 will be completed very soon. A mild correction should follow (wave [ii]) before wave [iii] of 3 to 1400+ will unfold.

I'll have more on the SPX, the EUR/USD and PMs after the close today.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 20 April 2011

I'll be at home tomorrow so I'll post a big update with charts then. As said on Monday the 1300ish support did hold and we've got a huge rally since then. Next resistance is at 1340-44. Once above that we should see prices above 1400 later this quarter.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 18 April 2011

I do have internet for the next three weeks so I'll be able to write some short updates on my iphone during the week.

It looks like the short term alternative b wave count was the right one (see last post). The very important support level (1295-1305) held again though so the wave 2 count still looks best.

Below 1295ish next support is at 1284ish. A break above 1323 would almost certainly confirm that wave 3 is underway.

Announcements

(I've just posted an SPX, EUR/USD, Gold and Silver a few minutes ago:
http://www.wavaholic.com/2011/04/s-500-eurusd-gold-silver-update-16.html)




Bad news first:

I don't know if you knew it but Switzerland has an army! And once a year (for a few weeks) each citizen has to go to the army to practise shooting and to do other stuff.

Since trading is no excuse no to go I can't post frequently from the 18th of April till the 6th of May. I think we got internet there though so I should be able to write at least a very short update once a day.


Good news:

I was delighted to see that many are using the rss feed of my blog.

(To subscribe click here:

)

For those of you who prefer emails I've now enabled the possibility to recieve my updates via email:

I'll be back on May 7th so expect many new posts from May 7th onwards. I plan to do updates on the EUR/USD and Silver & Gold more frequently, I'll keep the main focus on the SPX though.

If you have any wishes of other indices, currencies etc. you want me to post regular updates just send me an email at admin at wavaholic dot com



Have a nice weekend!

Cheers,

Hugo

S&P 500, EUR/USD, Gold, Silver ~ Update ~ 16 April 2011

Big update before I'm away for almost three weeks (see next post).

S&P 500

So far the SPX seems to like my count ; ) As posted in my Elliott Wave Outlook on April the break of 1325 confirmed that wave 2 into the 1300 area was underway. On Thursday, the SPX hit 1302 and has rallied already twenty handles since then thus it's very likely that wave 3 is underway now:

I posted on Thursday that this rally could be only a wave [b] and a wave [c] to 1295-1300 could still follow. For this count to happen the market has to sell off immediately early next week though, the higher we go from here the less likely is this alternative count.

A break above the 1340-44 area confirms that wave 3 is underway. My target is 1430-50.



EUR/USD

(Read my last update on the EUR/USD here)

After the break above 1.43ish the EUR/USD has hit 1.45 several times this week. Unless we get a convincing decline below 1.425ish I still think that we'll see 1.50ish.

Chart posted on April 8th 2011

Gold

(Read my last update on gold here)

It's been a long time since my last update on gold but there was just no need for an update as it continues to go higher.

Back in January I mentioned that gold is usually relatively weak between February and July. So far we haven't seen any weakness though:

And as long as we don't see weakness please do not short gold! It's possible that it peaks around 1500 and then corrects a few hundred bucks (as shown in the long term chart early January) but the medium term charts looks very bullish:

Only a break below the uptrendline would change the medium term picture.


Silver

(Read my last update on silver here)

Silver continues to outperform gold. We're already way above 40$ and it looks like we're heading for the all time high near 50$.

As with gold, there is just no reason to short silver.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 14 April 2011

Despite the new low today there's no reason to change my count. Still think that wave 1 topped at 1338 and wave 2 probably bottomed at 1302:

The other possibility is that 1302 only marked the low of wave [a] of 2 (i.e. [b] and [c] of 2 are still to come). If it's only wave [a] then we should see a rally to ~1320-25 and then another sell off down to the 1300 area.

Above 1325 the wave 2 count should be the right one. A rally above 1340ish confirms that wave 3 to 1400+ is underway.

The downtrendline posted earlier today was breached by the way. So, a rally into the low 1320's is very likely in my opinion.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 14 April 2011

The SPX declined further today and almost hit 1300 in the morning. It has recovered since then though and is now trading just a few handles below yesterday's close.

Once the downtrendline is broken I think we should see some more upside. First target should be the low 1320's.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 13 April 2011

The SPX declined a bit further today and may have completed wave 2 at 1309. It's too early to tell though whether it's indeed wave 2 or only wave [a] of 2 so we have to see what happens the next few days.

The big support area remains at 1300ish and resistance at 1340ish. Once above it 1400+ should come next.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 April 2011

The SPX declined again today which makes it four in a row. (Last time we've seen this was back in November 2010!)

As said earlier today my preferred target for wave 2 is the 1300ish area (between the 38 and 50 % retracement). Maximum retrace for this second wave is 1284ish (62 %). If the market declines below that level a sell off down to 1250 or even to 1220 is very likely.

The potential inverse H&S is still very speculative but a decline to ES 1295ish would make a very nice right shoulder, wouldn't it?

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 12 April 2011

The SPX declined below 1330 which indicated that a move lower towards 1300ish is very likely.

My preferred target area for wave 2 is around the 1300 level. There the market should find support and then start wave 3 up to 1400+.

Should we get a convincing break of this level though then I think wave (2) is still underway and maybe after all we still get to my 1220 target.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 8 April 2011

(See last EUR/USD update here)

We got the expected correction at the 1.43ish level. It was very weak though and couldn't even break the first support at 1.40ish.

The EUR/USD is now trading at 1.44 and as long as 1.40ish holds I think we'll see 1.50ish:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 April 2011

The range this month so far has been only eight handles. Once we break out of this tight range we should see a big move.

If it breaks to the downside a gapfill at 1319ish is likely.

Should we move higher the next target is the yearly high at 1344. I don't think it will hold though so a move to around 1360ish to complete wave 1 could very well happen.


So, let's see which way it breaks.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 5 April 2011

The market didn't really go anywhere yesterday. We're still inside the rising wedge and above 1325 so we may still see one more wave up.

If we get a convincing break of 1325ish I think wave 2 is underway. First short-term target should be the gap at 1319. Next targets are 1305-09 and 1300ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Outlook on April 2011

Review of March

I've just seen that I didn't write a March outlook. If you've read my daily updates though I think you know that I was looking for a correction into the 1220-25 area.

The market only declined to 1249 though from where we've seen a huge bounce indicating that we've probably already seen the wave (2) low.


Outlook on April

A second wave usually retraces at least 50 % of the first wave. The current wave (2) has only retraced 28.5 % or 95 points so far so have we seen only a part of the correction?

If you have a look at the chart below you can see that in 2009 wave (2) of [A] was also very short in time and in price (about month and 87 handles/30 %). These parameters are very similar to today thus I think wave (2) bottomed at 1249 and wave (3) is underway:

Almost all waves since the bottom in early 2009 have the same characteristics: The first wave is usually the longest and most powerful wave. Thus, Intermediate wave (3) is likely to be shorter than wave (1) so my target area is around 1500. A fourth and a fifth wave should then complete the motive wave, which started in July 2010, around 1600 early next year.

Once the yearly highs are broken my next target is the rising channel line (~1400).

It looks like we need one more rally to complete wave 1. After that a wave 2 should follow down into the 1300 area. A break below 1325 should confirm that wave 2 is underway.

Short-term support is at 1325-29 and then around 1300. Resistance is at 1344.



To sum up, unless we get a convincing break of 1300ish I think that we'll see more upside in April.

There are obviously other counts around in the blogosphere. I'd like to keep it simple though and focus only on the count which I think is the most probable. In my opinion it helps you more if there is only one count instead of like one primary count and three alternatives (i.e. something for everybody).

But let me know which way you prefer it. ; )


If you have any questions, suggestions etc. email me at admin at wavaholic dot com.


Have a very nice week!