Weekend Update ~ 26 June 2011

Big update today because I'm on summer vacation until July 7th.

As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )

It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:

If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.


USD/CHF

As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.


EUR/CHF

Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.


Gold

Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds


The European Debt Crisis... : ))

Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )

See you on July 7th!

Hugo

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 24 June 2011

The SPX sold-off to the low 1260's again yesterday and then bounced when the Greek news came out.

As you can see in the chart the market has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June. So, if you buy at 1260 and sell at 1296 with a stop a few handles below/above your risk/reward is quite good. ; )

If the SPX breaks out of this trading range the next target areas are 1220-30 and 1313ish.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 23 June 2011

Once again the rally peaked at 1296ish.

The current pattern looks very similar to June 9/10th and 14/15th so a sell-off to 1258 or even lower to 1249 is very likely

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 22 June 2011

The SPX did indeed close the gap at 1288 and rallied even further - almost all the way up to 1300.

The strong resistance at 1296ish stopped the rally once again and we'll have to see whether this is just another bulltrap of which we've seen many since early May or if this is the start of a new medium-term uptrend.

Above 1296 the next reistance is at 1313ish. Important support is at 1280ish. If the SPX declines below that level then I think we'll see the low (1260) again.

Blogger seems to have some problems again.. I can't post charts... So, I'll edit them later into this post

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 21 June 2011

I'm not at home today so unfortunately I can't post any intraday updates.

After we hit the resistance at 1280 yesterday not much happened anymore. Overnight the ES rallied and is now above the aforementioned level so it looks like the SPX can breach the 1280 area at the open.

Next targets are the gap at 1288, the low 1290's and then 1313. Supports are at 1278-80, 1275 and 1268.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 20 June 2011

And there we are : )

Let's see if we can break it and rally to 1288ish or pull back now.

Very nice intraday channel so far. It looks like a trend day is forming:

As long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows the trend is up!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 20 June 2011

At 10 am the SPX hit the upper channel line, pulled back a little and then broke above it about 15 min ago. As I said before I think we could see 1280 now.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 20 June 2011

The SPX broke the 1273 support around noon last Friday and then closed the gap in the afternoon and bounced from there into the close.

There is a very nice channel forming since early Friday so the channel lines seem to be support/resistance for today. If we break to the downside next support is the low at 1258 and to the upside the next resistance is 1280 and then 1290.

USD/CHF ~ Update ~ 19 June 2011

The pattern continues:

As already mentioned mid May the pattern is always the same: new low - retest old low - new low - etc.

So as long as this continues, i.e. we don't rally above 86ish, the trend is clearly down. The down waves measured about 600 to 800 pips thus the next wave could bring the USD/CHF to below 0.80!

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 17 June 2011

The 1.41 area proved to be a strong support level and I still think it's a key level. If it holds we could see another rally towards the 1.51 area. Should it break though then I think we'll sell-off to the 1.34-35ish area:

Short-term it looks like the move from 1.47 to 1.41 completed an a-b-c thus another motive wave up may have started at 1.41 yesterday. A break of the 1.43 resistance level would support this count.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 17 June 2011

After the big gap up the SPX has been going sideways for the last two hours. Still think we could see a rally to 1290ish but yesterday's high has to hold.

Support and resistance areas are shown in the chart below:

I'll have some EUR/USD charts later ; )

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 17 June 2011

I didn't have much time last week so I couldn't post any currency updates. I'm gonna catch up on it today and this weekend ; )

But first an SPX update:

As posted on Wednesday the fractal worked out pretty well and it looks like we may get another "W-fractal". If the market can break 1274ish then we could see a rally to 1290ish again.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 June 2011

= >

; )

As said before 12(50)-60ish is strong support. Not sure if it holds though as it seems like everybody is waiting for 1250. So, either we turn already at 1260 or break 1250 and sell off to 1220-30 imo.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 14 June 2011

The SPX opened above the 1280 resistance area then rallied on and almost hit the 1296ish resistance in the afternoon.

We saw these one-day-rallies quite often in May and within one or two days the gains were erased again so we have to watch the next few days very closely.

June 7th-9th looks very similar to June 10th-14th, especially today was almost a perfect copy of June 9th.
On June 10th the market gapped down and then sold off 20 handles. So, if the SPX gaps down tomorrow we may close today's gap or even revisit the lows.

Support is the 1278-80ish area, 1272 (gap) and 1266 (low). Resistance is still at 1296ish and then 1313ish.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 13 June 2011

The SPX hit the 1296ish resistance area on Thursday and then sold off down to 1266 so far.

Next support is the 1250-60 area. If it breaks the next target should be the 1220-30 area.
Resistances are at 1280, 1296 and 1313ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 9 June 2011

And there is the bounce! : )

As said before resistances are at 1296ish and at 1313ish.

The Complete History Of Oil Since 1861

The SPX closed the gap at 1279 and is now barely holding the support area around 1280-85. Let's see where it opens tomorrow and whether we get a bounce here or just sell-off another 1-2 %.

I really liked today's Chart of the Day so I just wanted to share it ; )

(source)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 8 June 2011

The SPX is testing the 1280-85 support area again today:

It's possible to count five waves down from 1345 to 1280. Thus, if 1280 holds we could see a bigger bounce here. The first target should be the 1296ish area and if this breaks a rally to 1313ish should occur.

S&P 500 ~ Update ~ 7 June 2011

The SPX bounced off of the 1280-85 support, rallied up to the 1296ish resistance area and then sold off again to 1285ish. So, the support and resistance lines continue to work very well ; )

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Update ~ 7 June 2011

The SPX breached the 1296ish support area after the open yesterday and then sold off to 1285.

Next support areas are 1280-85 (open gap and a=c (1370-10 & 1345-1285)), 1273 (gap) and then 1260ish.
Resistances are at 1296ish and then 1313ish.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 3 June 2011

The SPX gapped down today into the strong support area around 1297 and has been rallying since then.

If we get above yesterday's low a rally into the mid 1310's is likely (previous support/gap area/yesterday's high)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 2 June 2011

The channel actually works still very well (except for the failed break out of course.. : )). The market hit the lower channel line this morning and has rallied since then:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 2 June 2011

Yesterday shortly after the open the market sold off to the important 1330ish level which had to hold if the bullish count was underway.

By noon this level was breached though and the market lost another 15 handles until the close to finish the day more than 2 % lower. So unfortuanely the trade (long @ 1330) didn't work at all but I think the risk-reward was very good.


At the moment I don't have a favourite count because there are just too many alternatives and I don't really like any of them. But may be you have an idea on how to label the waves so just post it in the comment section : )

Until I find a possible count I'll just post the support and resistance levels which have actually worked very well in the past weeks:

ES ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 1 June 2011

The market is selling off today and is now near the broken downtrend line. As said yesterday SPX 1330 +/- a few handles should hold if we are indeed in a new uptrend.