As already mentioned on Friday the SPX has been trading between 1260 and 1296 since early June and I hope it will continue till I'm back... ; )
It looks like a big flat has been underway since mid February. We're currently in wave [iv] or already in wave [v] of wave C so we should bottom out within the next one or two weeks:
If the market declines below 1260ish a sell-off to 1220-30 or even a tad lower to the weekly MA 76 (currently around 1200 and rising 2 handles/week) is very likely. A convincing break of 1296 though is bullish and should lead to a rally to 1313 and then 1345.
USD/CHF
As said last week as long as the USD/CHF stays below 0.86 the trend is down. We've already seen a new low on Friday and if we get a convincing break of the 0.83 area we may see 0.80 very soon.
EUR/CHF
Not much happened since my last update. The EUR/CHF just continues to go lower and as long as the channel holds I continue to expect lower prices.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has bounced off of the 1.41 area a few times already and it looks a bit like a contracting triangle is forming. If we break lower we could see 1.34-35 later this year and if we break higher a rally to 1.50ish again is likely.
Gold
Nothing really changed. Still in an uptrend as long as the uptrend line holds
The European Debt Crisis... : ))
Have a great rest of the weekend/next week and a great Independence Day to the US readers! ; )
See you on July 7th!
Hugo
