S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 29 February 2012

After a rally to 1378 in the morning the SPX corrected and closed 6.5 points lower - that's actually the fourth worst day of the year...

As long as the market keeps making higher highs and higher lows pullbacks should be bought. I still like the comparison with 2010 though, i. e. a 50-point-correction sometime soon, and if the support at 1355ish breaks the correction should be underway.

Gold ~ Update ~ 29 February 2012

Gold hit the resistance at 1800ish this morning and is now selling off. The first support at 1765ish is already breached and we're now already around the next support level at 1710ish:

Silver ~ Update ~ 28 February 2012

After a short consolidation around the resistance at 35.5ish silver continued its rally today and is now above 37 $:

Next target should be 39ish.

As long as silver is above 33ish the medium-term trend is up.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 27 February 2012

I just wanted to clarify that I'm still bullish (because of my previous post which problably sounded bearish). The uptrend is still very much intact.
As long as the SPX keeps bouncing from the support levels and not breaking them, you shouldn't even dare to short the market:

As for elliott wave: it's very difficult to count such slow grind ups since fifth waves can often extend almost endlessly. So in these situation I usually focus primarily on support and resistance levels and the overall trend. If I had only focused on EW I'd probably be out of the market since 1330 missing the last 40 handles. Very often it's better to concentrate on the bigger wave (wave [iii] up) instead of trying to guess the top i. e. the end of subwave (v).

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 27 February 2012

We just made a new bull market high! : )

I talked about the similarities between today and late 2010 a few days ago. The similarities are even stronger than I thought:

Coincidence? We'll find out in March ; )

Silver ~ Update ~ 23 February 2012

There we go!

Silver finally broke out of the 33-34.5 range today and immediately spiked up to almost 36 $:

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 23 February 2012

The SPX hit the support at 1355ish in the morning and then rallied for the rest of the day:

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 22 February 2012

I'm back! ; )

The SPX is already up 100 handles this year and near last year's high. As I've been saying for the last two weeks or so we could see a correction very soon (into early-mid March). This doesn't mean though that there has to be one.

As you can see in the chart below, there aren't any signs of weakness yet. So there's no reason to be short already, rather be long and enjoy the ride up as long as it lasts. ; )

Resistance is at 1370ish, support at 1355 and 1340.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 16 February 2012

The current rally since December and the rally in fall 2010 look very similar:

Back in 2010 we didn't get a correction until a new high was made. And I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again. So a new high next week around 1380 and then a correction to 1330 (just a wild ass guess though! ; ))

Just wanted to let you know that there won't be any posts tomorrow during market hours because I'm going skiing.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 16 February 2012

As written in my EUR/CHF update of September 6th 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade between 1.2 for the next few months and so far the EUR/CHF obeyed me... ; )

As long as these levels hold trading the EUR/CHF is quite simple - long at 1.2 and short at 1.24-25.

Gold ~ Update ~ 15 February 2012

Gold has been consolidating for the past two weeks after it hit the resistance at 1760ish:

Silver ~ Update ~ 15 February 2012

Silver has been trading between 33 and 34.5 $ for the past three weeks:

Once we break out of this channel we should see a nice move.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 February 2012

The SPX has been trading between 1340ish and 1355ish for the last few days:

If we break out of this tight channel we could get a decent move. Next target to the upside is last year's high at 1370ish and to the downside 1325 and 1330ish.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 13 February 2012

CAC ~ Update ~ 10 February 2012

A reader asked me whether I could post an update on the CAC (French index). Mais bien sûr! ; )

I actually never followed the CAC so I was very surprised that the French index is still about 20 % below last year's high (meanwhile the SPX is near the 2011 high...).

The CAC entered a huge resistance area mid January (3350-3450). If it can break above 3450ish we could see a rally up to 3700-800:

Support areas are 3250ish and 3350ish. As long as these levels hold the medium-term trend is up.


I also had a look at a long-term chart:

This is my preferred count. As long as 3250 holds the count looks pretty good and we could eventually rally towards last year's high. Should the CAC drop below 3250 though, then something else might be underway. Technically the count is valid as long as there is no move below 2800. A 600 point stop isn't very appealing though...

For the sake of completeness you can see the bearish count below:

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 9 February 2012

Earlier this week the EUR/USD broke the resistance at 1.32ish, which is now support. As long as we're above this level the trend is up. Next target is 1.35ish:

Nasdaq ~ EOD Update ~ 8 February 2012

For a change I post a Nasdaq chart today:

The SPX is still a few points below last year's high meanwhile the Nasdaq hit a level we haven't seen since late 2000! I mentioned that I expect a correction sometime in February followed by another rally. So, what could happen for the Nasdaq, is that we'll retest the breakout area between 2800-900 and then move higher.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 7 February 2012

The SPX hit 1349 today and is now less than two percent below last year's high!

As said yesterday, I think we could see a correction sometime in February. We may need a test of 1360-70 first though. Should we get a correction, potential targets are 1325-30 or 1312.

Silver ~ Update ~ 7 February 2012

As pointed out last week, 33 $ should be support. Silver hit this level yesterday and today and already rallied about 1 $ from this level. I hope you took the trade : )

Gold ~ Update ~ 6 February 2012

We actually got a correction at the resistance at 1760ish:

Support and resistance areas are shown in the chart above.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 6 February 2012

To be honest I thought the correction would last a bit longer but the target of 1295ish was almost hit so the SPX was ready to move higher:

I still think we'll see a correction in February (wave 4) but there is no way I'll try to short it... rather add to my longs after a pullback (as during wave [iv]).

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 February 2012

I realized that I managed to upload the wrong charts in my last post... It's fixed now ; )

Silver broke the resistance at 31 $ mid-late January and after a small pullback also the resistance level at 33 $ and is now up 6 $ already this year:

33 $ is now support. Next resistances are at 35 and then 39 $.

Gold ~ Update ~ 2 February 2012

After some consolidation around the resistance at 1670ish gold rallied on and is currently trading at 1760. As said in my previous update a break of 1670 should lead to a new all-time high:

I added two weak resistance levels around 1760 and 1800 which could offer some resistance. Medium-term we should rally to 1900+ though (as long as 1650-70 holds).