Friday, March 30, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 30 March 2012
The SPX gapped up into the resistance at 1409 and then immediately reversed and closed the gap:
Thursday, March 29, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 29 March 2012
The SPX broke the 1397ish level shortly after the open and then declined further. I actually thought we could hit the support at 1390 but the market decided to form a triple bottom at 1392 and then to rally into the close once again.
The SPX is now bumping against the resistance at 1397-99. If breached we could even see a gap close.
S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 29 March 2012
The SPX lost about 10 handles overnight and will open around yesterday's low. If we break this support area we could see a decline to 1387-90 today. If we hold it though then we might see a gap close. Let's see how the market reacts after the open.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 28 March 2012
And a nice rally from the support area at 1397-1400 into the close:
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 28 March 2012
The SPX tried to form a bottom around the 1407ish area but eventually failed to do so and quickly sold off to the next support area at 1397-1400:
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 March 2012
Two weeks ago I mentioned that the 1440-50 area is a likely target for wave [v]. Pre-market the SPX is already trading at 1420 so we're already less than 2 % away:
As you can see in the chart the SPX should be in wave (iii) of [v]. If we expect the third wave to be the longest then the 1440-50 area is actually too conservative a target. 1500ish as a target is actually more likely.
Let's compare the current uptrend to late 2010/early 2011 once again: In 2010/2011 wave 1 measured about 120 handles (1010-1130), wave 3 about 190 handles (1040-1230), and wave 5 about 170 handles (1170-1340). So not only wave 3 extended but also wave 5. If we take this into account and apply it to today then 1500ish looks actually very reasonable as a target for wave [v].
If the SPX declines below 1390ish wave [v] is over and wave 4 underway.
As you can see in the chart the SPX should be in wave (iii) of [v]. If we expect the third wave to be the longest then the 1440-50 area is actually too conservative a target. 1500ish as a target is actually more likely.
Let's compare the current uptrend to late 2010/early 2011 once again: In 2010/2011 wave 1 measured about 120 handles (1010-1130), wave 3 about 190 handles (1040-1230), and wave 5 about 170 handles (1170-1340). So not only wave 3 extended but also wave 5. If we take this into account and apply it to today then 1500ish looks actually very reasonable as a target for wave [v].
If the SPX declines below 1390ish wave [v] is over and wave 4 underway.
Monday, March 26, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 March 2012
The SPX opened above the resistance at 1407-08. Around 10 am the SPX tested this area and then moved higher.
Support is at 1407-08 and at 1397/99. Resistance at 1414.
Support is at 1407-08 and at 1397/99. Resistance at 1414.
Gold ~ Update ~ 26 March 2012
The resistance at 1670-80 is still holding so the trend is still down:
Gold has corrected 62 % of the previous rally so far.
The current downtrend can be labeled as wave ii. If so, then we should see a third wave up next. Before turning bullish again I'd like to see a break of 1720ish first though.
Gold has corrected 62 % of the previous rally so far.
The current downtrend can be labeled as wave ii. If so, then we should see a third wave up next. Before turning bullish again I'd like to see a break of 1720ish first though.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 22 March 2012
The SPX bounced twice from the support at 1390ish so I hope you could make some money ; )
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 21 March 2012
As written in my update of early September 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade in a narrow range, similar to what happened in 2009. So far so good:
Unless the SNB decides to take some action (e.g. increase the minimum rate) we have to expect this sideways trend to continue. So I think the easiest trade still is to go long at 1.20ish and short at 1.24-25.
Unless the SNB decides to take some action (e.g. increase the minimum rate) we have to expect this sideways trend to continue. So I think the easiest trade still is to go long at 1.20ish and short at 1.24-25.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Silver ~ Update ~ 20 March 2012
As well as gold, silver rallied to the first resistance (at 33) and then rolled over again.
Gold ~ Update ~ 20 March 2012
Gold rallied back to the resistance at 1670-80 and then reversed again.
Monday, March 19, 2012
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 19 March 2012
The rally from 1340 continued today:
We're no up about 75 handles within two weeks and already less than two percent below my target area for this rally. Once this rally is completed we should see a retest of the 1370-80 area (wave 4).
We're no up about 75 handles within two weeks and already less than two percent below my target area for this rally. Once this rally is completed we should see a retest of the 1370-80 area (wave 4).
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Gold ~ Update ~ 14 March 2012
Gold rallied from the support at 1670-80 to the resistance at 1710-20 by Monday. Since then gold has been declining and broke the support at 1670-80 today:
Next support is at 1600 and then the very strong support area at 1550ish. Resistances are at 1670-80 and 1710-20.
Next support is at 1600 and then the very strong support area at 1550ish. Resistances are at 1670-80 and 1710-20.
Silver ~ Update ~ 14 March 2012
From the support at 33ish we got a nice rally to the resistance around 34.5ish by Friday. Since then silver has been selling off again and also broke the support at 33ish earlier today:
Next supports are at 30ish and 26. Resistances are at 33 and 34.5.
Next supports are at 30ish and 26. Resistances are at 33 and 34.5.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 13 March 2012
If wave [v] equals [i] the target for this rally is 1448. 1440 was the bear market rally high in 2008 so 1440-48 is my preferred target area for wave [v].
The SPX shouldn't decline below 1370 or else wave [v] is most likely over.
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 13 March 2012
The SPX breached the resistance at 1375-78 early in the morning and then just kept moving higher and almost hit 1400 before the close.
I adjusted my count (relabeled waves [iii] and [iv]). It's only a minor change though so the overall picture remains:
Next target is the 1440-50 area. I'll post a chart later which explains how I got this target area.
I adjusted my count (relabeled waves [iii] and [iv]). It's only a minor change though so the overall picture remains:
Next target is the 1440-50 area. I'll post a chart later which explains how I got this target area.
Monday, March 12, 2012
S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 12 March 2012
The SPX rallied from the support at 1340ish all the way up to the bull market highs by Friday and has been going sideways since then:
Friday, March 9, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 9 March 2012
And also the second gap is closed now. If the SPX stays above 1365 I think we could see a rally to the highs at 1377ish:
Thursday, March 8, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 8 March 2012
As expected the SPX bounced at 1340 and is now already about to close the open gap:
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Silver ~ Update ~ 7 March 2012
I actually expected a rally to 39ish after 35.5 was breached. We only got to 37.5 which is at least a 2 $ rally so I hope you still made some money.
We got a first bounce at the 34.5 support level and then declined further a few days later and hit the support area at 33ish yesterday:
We got a first bounce at the 34.5 support level and then declined further a few days later and hit the support area at 33ish yesterday:
Gold ~ Update ~ 7 March 2012
The sell-off from the resistance area at 1800ish continued yesterday and gold already hit the support at 1680ish. In my opinion we should hold this level to see the medium-term trend to continue, else a retest of the strong support at 1550ish might be next.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 March 2012
The SPX lost 1.5 % today - which is the worst trading day of the year. I think for the first time this year one of my support lines was broken. 1355ish was already breached at the open what resulted in a quick decline to the next support level at 1340ish:
We could see a bounce around the 1340ish support area. Possible targets are the 1355ish resistance area or even the open gap at 1364.
By the way the 2010 analogy still looks pretty good. ; )
We could see a bounce around the 1340ish support area. Possible targets are the 1355ish resistance area or even the open gap at 1364.
By the way the 2010 analogy still looks pretty good. ; )
Monday, March 5, 2012
S&P 500 ~ Big Picture ~ 5 March 2012
It's been two months since my last long-term update.
Review
Back in early January I mentioned that as long as the SPX stays above 1200 you should be bullish. I also mentioned that if the bullish count is underway that we should see a quick rally to new bull market highs during the first quarter. And that's what actually happened.
Outlook
The bullish count looks very good - ever since 1310 has been broken.
Blue wave 3 should finish anytime soon. Wave 4 should then unfold and isn't allowed to decline to below 1290. Wave 5 should then follow later this year to complete red wave (A) somewhere in the 14xx area.
Very long-term chart:
I still think that eventually we'll see a new low below 666. However, please don't raise a credit and go short once we hit 1600. There are endless options to count such long-term charts, so these counts should solely be for entertainment purposes and not to base your trades on.
To sum up, I think the rally will continue. We could see a few corrections during the next months as you can see it in the first chart. As long as the next correction doesn't decline below 1290 the bullish count is valid.
Review
Back in early January I mentioned that as long as the SPX stays above 1200 you should be bullish. I also mentioned that if the bullish count is underway that we should see a quick rally to new bull market highs during the first quarter. And that's what actually happened.
Outlook
The bullish count looks very good - ever since 1310 has been broken.
Blue wave 3 should finish anytime soon. Wave 4 should then unfold and isn't allowed to decline to below 1290. Wave 5 should then follow later this year to complete red wave (A) somewhere in the 14xx area.
Very long-term chart:
I still think that eventually we'll see a new low below 666. However, please don't raise a credit and go short once we hit 1600. There are endless options to count such long-term charts, so these counts should solely be for entertainment purposes and not to base your trades on.
To sum up, I think the rally will continue. We could see a few corrections during the next months as you can see it in the first chart. As long as the next correction doesn't decline below 1290 the bullish count is valid.
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