Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Monday, December 23, 2013
ES ~ 23 December 2013
We got the expected rally after the resistance at 1805ish (SPX 1812ish) was breached:
As long as we are above 1805, the trend is clearly up.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As long as we are above 1805, the trend is clearly up.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, December 19, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 19 December 2013
The SPX pulled back to the support at 1802ish today and then rallied to the resistance at 1812ish:
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 18 December 2013
The SPX hit the support at 1775ish once again today and then rallied back to the all-time highs after the FED announcement:
Let's see if we can break 1812 tomorrow and continue the rally.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Let's see if we can break 1812 tomorrow and continue the rally.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 18 December 2013
After having given back most of Monday's gains yesterday, the SPX is again near the support around 1775ish. We have the FED announcement today, so let's see how the market reacts.
Resistances are at 1800 and 1812 and support levels are at 1775ish and 1758ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Resistances are at 1800 and 1812 and support levels are at 1775ish and 1758ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, December 16, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 16 December 2013
The SPX rallied today after we had touched the support at 1774ish last week. If we can hold above 1782, we could even see a rally back to 1800.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
ES ~ 16 December 2013
The futures crashed overnight but are now up:
If we can hold above 1777ish, we could see a rally back to 1800. Else a decline back to 1767ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If we can hold above 1777ish, we could see a rally back to 1800. Else a decline back to 1767ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, December 13, 2013
ES ~ 13 December 2013
The ES is trading within a 10 handle range. If we get a breakout, targets are the low 1750's or 1800:
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, December 12, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 12 December 2013
The SPX declined to the next support level around 1775ish:
As said many times before, a decline below this support would be pretty significant. I think we could see a decline to 1700ish if that happens. As long as we stay above it though, a rally back towards 1800 should occur.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As said many times before, a decline below this support would be pretty significant. I think we could see a decline to 1700ish if that happens. As long as we stay above it though, a rally back towards 1800 should occur.
Author: Patrick Eugster
ES ~ 12 December 2013
The ES near the support area. If it holds, we could see a rally back to 1800. Should we break below it though, a decline towards 1750 is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 11 December 2013
And we got the decline to 1780ish:
It looks like we could get a short-term rally at either 1780ish or 1775ish.
As mentioned earlier, if we break below 1770 convincingly, a decline towards 1700 is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like we could get a short-term rally at either 1780ish or 1775ish.
As mentioned earlier, if we break below 1770 convincingly, a decline towards 1700 is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 11 December 2013
The SPX dropped below the important 1800 level after the opening. As expected the decline continued thereafter and we're now already near the next support area around the 1780ish area.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
ES ~ 11 December 2013
The ES is near its support at 1800ish. If it doesn't hold, we should decline to 1780-85.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, December 9, 2013
USD/JPY ~ 9 December 2013
We got a short correction at 103.5 but are now back at the highs. If we break 103.5, this rally should go much further. 101.5 needs to hold for this bullish outlook though.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 3 December 2013
We got a small correction to around 1790 today. We had declines of about 1.5 % before though so bears shouldn't get too excited yet. I still think that 1770 is a key level. If we convincingly break it, a 100-point-correction is likely.
For more counts please visit: http://www.wavaholic.com/2013/11/s-500-elliott-wave-count-25-november.html
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
Author: Patrick Eugster
ES ~ Globex ~ 3 December 2013
The ES declined below the support at 1800ish and is now already near the next support at 1792ish. If this level holds, we could see a rally back to 1800ish. If it breaks though, a sell-off to 1775 should follow.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, December 2, 2013
USD/JPY ~ 2 December 2013
The USD/JPY rallied nicely after the breakout of the triangle:
We're now approaching the next resistance, the May highs. We might get at least a short-term correction around these levels. However, the pattern this year looks very similar to last year. So, if 103.5ish breaks, we could go much higher.
Author: Patrick Eugster
We're now approaching the next resistance, the May highs. We might get at least a short-term correction around these levels. However, the pattern this year looks very similar to last year. So, if 103.5ish breaks, we could go much higher.
Author: Patrick Eugster
ES ~ Globex ~ 2 December 2013
The ES is still trading between 1800 and 1810. If 1800 breaks, we should see a drop to 1792ish. If 1810ish breaks though, the futures could add another 10 points.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
ES ~ Globex ~ 27 November 2013
The ES is slightly higher this morning (+2 points). The next support level is at 1800ish:
If 1800 breaks, we should see a decline to 1792ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If 1800 breaks, we should see a decline to 1792ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 November 2013
 |
| (link to previous count) |
It looks like we have completed a motive wave at 1800ish. However, the SPX has been very bullish over the last few days and weeks and thus, until we get a big reversal the trend continues to be up.
If the SPX declines below 1770, I think that a bigger correction is underway. I expect this correction to be of similar length as the previous ones, i. e. around 80 to 120 points.
 |
| (link to previous count) |
The higher we go, the more it looks like that we are in a (black) wave [3] and not in a (black) wave [C]. For now, both scenarios are still possible though:
If we are in a wave [3], we should see a correction next year, similar to 2011, followed by a wave [5] to 2000+.
If we are in a wave [C] though, we should decline heavily starting next year as shown in the chart below (down to pink e in the bottom right corner):
As mentioned in previous posts, these long-term counts should be taken with a grain of salt. There are just too many ways of counting long-term waves. So, in my opinion, it doesn't really add any value.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, November 22, 2013
Thursday, November 21, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 21 November 2013
It looks like wave (v) is now underway. This subwave should complete wave (3) which will be followed by a correction (wave (4)).
If the SPX declines below 1770, I'll turn bearish since wave (4) should then be unfolding.
I'll post the long-term charts tomorrow morning.
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
I'll post the long-term charts tomorrow morning.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Monday, November 18, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 13 November 2013
The SPX broke the resistance at 1774ish:
I think a rally to 1800 is very likely now.
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
I think a rally to 1800 is very likely now.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Monday, November 11, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 11 November 2013
The SPX is near its all-time high again. If we can break it, we should target 1800ish next.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, November 7, 2013
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 7 November 2013
After many failed attempts the market broke below the support at 1757 today:
The next target should be 1740 (and maybe even 1730). The short-term trend is down as long as we stay below 1757.
Author: Patrick Eugster
The next target should be 1740 (and maybe even 1730). The short-term trend is down as long as we stay below 1757.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 30 October 2013
 |
| (link to previous count) |
Until we decline below 1757 the trend is still up though.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, October 28, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 October 2013
No important support levels have been broken, thus the trend is still up. The wave from 1650 now subdivides into five waves hence I adjusted my count:
As you can see wave 5 might be over soon. However, as long as we are above 1740, I'm bullish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Gold ~ 24 October 2013
Gold has been rallying over the last few days and is now approaching the resistance level at 1350-65:
A rally above this level would be medium-term bullish. Next targets were 1425 and 1480.
Author: Patrick Eugster
A rally above this level would be medium-term bullish. Next targets were 1425 and 1480.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 October 2013
The rally continues:
So far, no support levels have been breached, thus I'm still bullish.
If the Dow break below 15300 though, a wave C back to this month's lows is likely underway.
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
If the Dow break below 15300 though, a wave C back to this month's lows is likely underway.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, October 17, 2013
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 October 2013
The SPX hit a new all-time high today:
The last swing highs for the SPX were 1690, 1710, and 1730. So I think wave B could go as high as 1750. After that wave C to 1650 (?) should follow. Wave C should be underway if we decline below 1700.
For medium-/long-term counts click here: http://www.wavaholic.com/2013/10/s-500-elliott-wave-count-11-october-2013.html
Author: Patrick Eugster
The last swing highs for the SPX were 1690, 1710, and 1730. So I think wave B could go as high as 1750. After that wave C to 1650 (?) should follow. Wave C should be underway if we decline below 1700.
For medium-/long-term counts click here: http://www.wavaholic.com/2013/10/s-500-elliott-wave-count-11-october-2013.html
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 October 2013
 |
| (link to previous count) |
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Monday, October 14, 2013
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 14 October 2013
After a short sell-off this morning the rally continued:
It's possible that we're already in wave [c] of B. However, other short-term count are possible. Other possibilities were posted in the comment section of the last post so you may want to check them out.
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
It's possible that we're already in wave [c] of B. However, other short-term count are possible. Other possibilities were posted in the comment section of the last post so you may want to check them out.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, October 11, 2013
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 October 2013
This is the second possibility I was talking about. Wave [3] may have finished in September. If so, we're now in wave [4] which could last several months. After that, wave [5] would follow sometime next year.
The Dow has already reached my second target for wave B. The next target is at 15370.
If we decline below 14950, I'm bearish again and the preferred target for wave C would be 14550ish.
For the first scenario click here (shown on the SPX).
I think, I slightly prefer the first scenario, i. e. I think the correction will end rather soon. However, anything can happen, so let's see how the market reacts next week.
Have a nice weekend!
Author: Patrick Eugster
 |
| (link to previous count) |
If we decline below 14950, I'm bearish again and the preferred target for wave C would be 14550ish.
For the first scenario click here (shown on the SPX).
I think, I slightly prefer the first scenario, i. e. I think the correction will end rather soon. However, anything can happen, so let's see how the market reacts next week.
Have a nice weekend!
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 October 2013
The main problem with the short-term count I showed for the Dow Jones yesterday is that it doesn't work for the SPX. The sell-off from 1730 to 1650 subdivides into three waves (and not five).
In an earlier post I mentioned the possibility of counting wave [3]/[C] slightly differently. Below you can now see this alternative:
I actually quite like it this way. I'll show you the other likely scenario a bit later today (for the Dow Jones) so that you have a nice overview of the two possibilities.
Author: Patrick Eugster
In an earlier post I mentioned the possibility of counting wave [3]/[C] slightly differently. Below you can now see this alternative:
 |
| (link to previous count) |
 |
| (link to previous count) |
I actually quite like it this way. I'll show you the other likely scenario a bit later today (for the Dow Jones) so that you have a nice overview of the two possibilities.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)