S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 27 March 2013

Two possible short-term counts:

If we're in an ending diagonal (first chart) the top should happen within the next one or two days and we shouldn't get a convincing break of 1565ish.

Should we get a convincing break of 1565ish (Dow 14550ish) though, the second count should be correct and the rally should go on for another week or so.

Let's see what happens tomorrow.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 27 March 2013

The SPX is forming a triangle. A break should lead to a big move:

USD/CHF ~ 27 March 2013

After a correction after hitting the parallel trend line in mid March, the USD/CHF is now back up at the mid March levels. If this level gets taken out, we should see a rally to the mid 2012 highs near 1.00:

ES ~ Intraday ~ 27 March 2013

The indices continue to go up and down and up and down:

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. It could be the formation of a top like last March or just a consolidation before the next move higher. So, let's wait and see which side the range breaks.

Silver ~ 26 March 2013

Silver has been trading around 29 $ for already more than a month:

Depending on which side breaks first, we should get a rally to 31ish or a decline 27.5ish, possibly even to 26.

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 26 March 2013

I think we're still heading for 1.27ish:

ES ~ Pre-Market ~ 26 March 2013

Not much happened during Globex hours, so the SPX should open near yesterday's level.

GBP/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 March 2013

AUD/USD ~ 25 March 2013

The trend is still up:

I'm still expecting to see 1.06ish as long as 1.04ish holds.

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 March 2013

After hitting a new all-time high, the Dow reversed and is now approaching 14380ish. If this level gives way, the rally should be over and we should see a correction over the next few weeks:

(link to previous count)

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 March 2013

Here is the short-term count for the EUR/USD:

I'm not quite sure whether the motive wave finished last Tuesday. Since there is some strong support around 1.27 (http://www.wavaholic.com/2013/03/eurusd-4-march-2013.html) I think a decline to that level is likely before we get a bigger rally.

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 March 2013

I usually don't count currencies because I find support and resistance levels much more useful for trading forex. But I got many requests via email so I think it's time to add the most important currency pairs to my list.

Let's start with the EUR/USD today:

The rally from 1.20ish to 1.37ish certainly looks like a corrective wave (three subwaves) so lower prices this year are likely.

I'll post a short-term count later.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 21 March 2013

It continues to feel like last year all over again: http://www.wavaholic.com/2013/03/s-500-fractal-19-march-2013.html

As I've now been mentioning for the last two weeks or so, the rally that started in November last year should come to an end soon:

It's still possible that we'll see new all-time highs next week but we might actually fail to achieve it.

Copper ~ 20 March 2013

Copper looks bearish below 3.6.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 20 March 2013

The rally that started at 1538 yesterday seems to cointinue today. It looks like we're in wave [v] which should lead to new all-time highs:

(link to previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday 2 ~ 19 March 2013

Big rally now. Could be the low. We'll see.

ES/S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 19 March 2013

We're almost at the overnight low:

This level equals (more or less) the support at SPX 1538:

Let's see if we get a reversal now. Otherwise SPX 1531 should be next.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 19 March 2013

If this is a fourth wave, the decline should come to an end soon.

Below 1538 it's unlikely that we're in a fourth wave and 1564 was most likely the top. If the SPX declines below 1525, this count is definitely void and a medium-term downtrend should be underway.

Gold ~ 19 March 2013

1550ish proved to be a strong support:

The situation is similar to mid last year. Between 1550 and 1640ish I'm neutral. If one level gives way, I'll turn bearish or bullish (depending on which level was broken).

S&P 500 ~ Fractal ~ 19 March 2013

I've shown this chart many times before and I think it looks still very good:

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 March 2013

As already shown for the SPX, today's decline was most likely (a part of) wave [iv] and not the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend:

USD/CAD ~ 18 March 2013

The USD/CAD retraced to the upper trendline of the channel which was broken one month ago. If we stay above this trendline, the rally should continue.

AUD/USD ~ 18 March 2013

The rally from 1.015 continues. I'm still expecting the AUD/USD to hit 1.06.

Short-term the trend is up as long as we stay above 1.035ish.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 March 2013

As mentioned in my last post it's very difficult to count the short-term waves. I think today's decline and rally helped to solve this problem. Today's low was most likely wave [iv] and wave [v] should be underway now.

(link to previous count)

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 March 2013

I think everybody is waiting eagerly for the markets to open. I personally am very interested to see the move in gold.

The other thing I'm interested in is if there will be any capital left in Cyprus by the end of this week. I don't know why anybody would keep their money in their bank account.


Before the markets open I'm posting updated counts for the Dow. They haven't really changed since my last updates. I think we're at the end of the rally that started in November last year.


Short-term:

These rallies which just go up without any correction are very difficult to count. So I'm still not sure where to put wave [iii]. One possibility you can see on the chart. Another possibility is to label 14540 as wave [iii] and tomorrow's decline (if we get one) as wave [iv].

Whichever count is correct, we should be near the end of wave 5.


Medium-term:

As shown on the short-term chart wave 5 (and wave (C)) either ended last week or will end very soon, which means that April/May should belong to the bears.


Long-term:

Long-term counts are always very speculative since there are many different possibilities to count the waves. So take this count with a grain of salt. Should the count turn out to be correct though, we should be near the beginning of a new bear market.


You can check out my other counts here: http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/09/elliott-wave-counts.html


(Previous Dow Jones counts: Short-term , Medium-term , Long-term)

Cypriots get robbed overnight

So it begins...


"People with less than 100,000 euros in Cypriot bank accounts will have to pay a one-time tax of 6.75%, while those with more will have to pay 9.9%. It is expected to raise 5.8bn euros in additional revenue."

source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21797888

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9934565/Cypriot-savers-hit-as-eurozone-agrees-10-billion-bail-out.html)


Today it's only 6.75 % in a small country. Let's see what happens when they steal 50 % in a bigger country tomorrow.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 14 March 2013

I think the SPX is now in wave [v] to complete wave 5 which in turn completes the wave that started in November last year:

(link to previous count)

USD/CHF ~ 14 March 2013

The USD/CHF broke the declining channel late February and has rallied more than two cents since then:

A rally to 1.00 seems possible if 0.955ish is convincingly breached.

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 14 March 2013

The rally continues today. The SPX is almost at the inverse H&S target now:

USD/JPY ~ 13 March 2013

The USD/JPY is now above the resistance at 95ish. The next target should be 102ish.

As long as we stay above the support at 94-95ish, the medium-term trend remains up.

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 March 2013

The Dow closes higher for the eighth and hits a new all-time high for the sixth consecutive day!

AUD/USD ~ 12 March 2013

The AUD/USD is still rallying and is already near the first resistance area:

If 1.035ish is broken, the next target should be 1.06ish.

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SPX ~ Fractal ~ 11 March 2013

I posted this chart a few times already and I think the similarities are still striking:

According to this chart the SPX should peak within the next two weeks.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 March 2013

The rally continued today. The SPX hit 1556 which is only 20 handles below the all-time high.

The correction on Friday was most likely too short to qualify for a wave [iv]. Thus, wave [iii] is most likely still underway. Most of the rally should already be over though.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 8 March 2013

Wave [iii] is probably completed:

(link to previous count)

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~7 March 2013

The Dow hit another new all-time high today:

Wave (v) seems to be underway.

(link to previous count)

USD/JPY ~ 7 March 2013

The USD/JPY is back at the resistance around 95ish. A break should lead to a rally to 102.5ish:

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 6 March 2013

Updated short-term count:

Crude Oil ~ 6 March 2013

As mentioned in my previous update, oil should continue to decline and eventually hit the lower trendline of the triangle:

We're already at the support around 90ish. If it breaks, the next target should be 86ish.

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 5 March 2013

Short-term count for the SPX:

SPX ~ Intraday ~ 5 March 2013

The neckline is broken:

As mentioned before, the H&S target is near the all-time highs at 1565ish. As long as the SPX stays above the neckline (1525), I expect the SPX to hit the target later this month.

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 5 March 2013

New All-Time High!

(link to previous count)

ES ~ Globex ~ 5 March 2013

Overnight, the futures rallied above the neckline:

If the SPX breaks the neckline as well and holds above it, the rally towards the all-time high should continue.

SPX ~ EOD ~ 4 March 2013

The SPX closed right at the neckline of the inverse H&S:

SPX ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 March 2013

Updated SPX counts (matching with the Dow count now):