S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 31 July 2013

I'm still looking for one more rally above 1700 in August:

(link to previous count)

Gold ~ 28 July 2013

I'm still unable to post daily for two more weeks. The next update should follow on Wednesday.

We got the expected rally to 1350:

As mentioned earlier this month, if 1350ish is convincingly breached, 1180 was most likely a long-term low. A break of 1350 should lead to a rally to 1480/1550.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 28 July 2013

It looks like we'll get one more wave higher before a bigger correction. The current short-term correction might continue for a few more days. After that, we should see wave [v] to complete wave 5 sometime in August.

(link to previous count)

(link to previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 21 July 2013

Unfortunately, I can't post any updates for the next three weeks (except on the weekends). Thus, this is the last one for a while.

(link to previous count)

I'm not quite sure whether waves [iii] and [iv] are already over (and we are now in wave [v] to conclude wave 5 in late July/early August) or whether we are still in wave [iii]. Whichever count is correct it looks like a correction in August is likely. However, for now, the trend is still up.


Regular updates will continue on August 9th.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 July 2013

(link to previous count)

ES ~ Globex ~ 17 July 2013

Oscillating between 1667 and 1680:

If 1680 convincingly breaks, we should see 1700 soon. If 1667 breaks, 1650 is likely.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 July 2013

(link to previous count)

ES ~ Globex ~ 15 July 2013

I think a rally to the all-time highs are possible today:

As long as 1667ish holds, the short-term trend is up. If it breaks, we could see a correction to 1650ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 July 2013

Have a nice weekend!

(link to previous count)

For short- and medium-term counts please visit this page: http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/09/elliott-wave-counts.html.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count 2 ~ 11 July 2013

An updated medium-term count for the SPX:

(link to previous count)

No changes to the count, it still looks good.


For a long-term count please visit: http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/09/elliott-wave-counts.html

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 11 July 2013

With the break of 1654 I had to slightly adjust the subwaves of wave [iii].

(link to previous count)

Following a wave [iv] correction we should see a rally to new highs in late July/early August (wave [v]).

Gold ~ Update ~ 11 July 2013

Gold has rallied back to 1300 over the last few days. I think we could see 1350ish next if 1260ish holds.

As already said two weeks ago, I think that we're very near a long-term bottom. If gold can break 1350ish convincingly, 1180 is most likely the low and the next wave to new all-time highs should be underway. If 1350 breaks, we should see a quick rally back to 1480/1550.

ES ~ Globex ~ 11 July 2013

The ES rallied to the resistance at 1665ish overnight:

If this level is broken, the next stop should be the all-time highs at 1680ish.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 10 July 2013

(link to previous count)

I'm not quite sure if the subwaves of wave [iii] are counted correctly. We could already be further into wave [iii] (somewhere in wave (iii)). If that's the case, we won't see any correction anytime soon. If we break today's high tomorrow, this alternative scenario is very likely.

EUR/USD ~ 10 July 2013

We're near the neckline of a huge H&S:

ES ~ Globex ~ 10 July 2013

We're still between 1640 and 1650:

We have the FOMC Minutes at 2 pm. So, I doubt much will happen until it's over.

FTSE ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 10 July 2013

It's been quite a while since my last post (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/05/ftse-update-29-may-2012.html) on the FTSE.

Below is an updated (slightly adjusted) count:

I think as long as 6000 holds, the FTSE is in pretty good shape, i. e. the uptrend is intact.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 9 July 2013

(link to previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 9 July 2013

The SPX is at the June highs:

I still think that a short-term correction over the next few days is likely. I moved the level, which should trigger the start of the correction if broken, up to 1644 (from 1637 yesterday). Until that's the case, the trend is up, though.

ES ~ Globex ~ 9 July 2013

The rally continued overnight. We are no above 1640ish:

The next resistances are at 1648 and 1665ish.

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 8 July 2013

So far, so good.

(link to previous count)

The EUR/USD is now at the very strong support area around 1.28. If it breaks convincingly, we should go much lower.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 8 July 2013

We almost hit 1647:

If the SPX declines below today's low (1637), a correction to 1625ish is likely.

ES ~ Globex ~ 8 July 2013

The ES almost hit the resistance at 1640ish overnight.

If 1640ish holds, I think we'll see a short-term correction back to 1620.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 8 July 2013

Updated count:

(link to previous count)

ES ~ Globex ~ 5 July 2013

We are now slightly below 1620ish:

If we can break 1620ish during regular trading hours, I think we could rally to 1640.

ES ~ Globex ~ 4 July 2013

Lots of action today in the futures:

We are now above 1620. If we can stay above it until tomorrow's opening, we should see a rally to 1640.

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 3 July 2013

To all my US readers: Have a great July 4!

Silver ~ 3 July 2013

Silver had a nice reversal last week around the support at 19ish:

I think we could be near a low. The trend is still down though as long as we are below 22ish. But if we rally above it, the down trend should be over.

ES ~ Globex ~ 3 July 2013

We got the expected correction to 1595ish:

If we break 1606ish, I think we will see a rally back to 1620ish.

ES ~ Globex ~ 2 July 2013

I think we could see a correction to 1595.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 July 2013

(link to previous count)

EUR/USD ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 July 2013

Updated count:

(link to previous count)

S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 1 July 2013

The SPX reversed right at the resistance at 1624ish!

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 1 July 2013

The SPX reached the resistance at 1624ish:

I think a short-term correction is likely now.

ES ~ Globex ~ 1 July 2013

The futures rallied nicely after the support at 1595 was reached: