Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 30 September 2013

So far, no important resistances have been breached and thus wave 2 is still underway.

(link to previous count)

Wave 2 has already retraced about 62 % of wave 1 and thus should end very soon. Once it's completed, wave 3 to 16000+ should follow.

Should we go much lower from here though, something else is likely underway.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 27 September 2013

The SPX closed the open gap at 1688 about half an hour ago and has been rallying since then.

If we can break 1694, we could see a rally to 1706ish:

Should the SPX break below today's low though, we should get a sell-off to the next support level at 1668-72 as mentioned in the Globex update this morning.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Globex ~ 27 September 2013

The ES is now right at the edge of the trading range we've been trading in during the last few days.

If it convincingly breaks below it, we could see a sell-off to 1660ish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 26 September 2013

(link to previous count)

Not much has changed since yesterday. We may have completed wave 2 at 15250. However, I need to see a break above 15450 before turning bullish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Globex ~ 26 September 2013

We're currently stuck between 1685 and 1700:

A break above 1700 should lead to a rally to new all-time highs. A convincing break below 1685 should lead to a sell-off to 1660.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 September 2013

So far everything goes according to plan. The correction continues and has now already retraced about half of the previous rally:

(link to previous count)

I think this correction will end soon. However, as long as we stay below 15430, the trend is down. Once we rally above this level though, I think we should be in wave 3 to 16000+.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 September 2013

(link to previous count)

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 September 2013

So far, so good. We're getting the expected correction:

(link to previous count)

My preferred target for wave 2 is 15350ish which we virtually hit today. Lower targets are 15190 and 15060.

If we break 15700, wave 3 to 16000+ should be underway.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ EOD ~ 20 September 2013

The plan worked out very well today. After the break of 1713, the ES sold off and hit the support at 1700ish shortly before the close:

Have a nice weekend!

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Globex ~ 20 September 2013

As long as we are above the support at 1713/14 the short-term trend is up. If we decline below it, we should drop back to the support at 1700ish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Gold ~ 19 September 2013

Gold surged to over 1360 yesterday:

As mentioned on Tuesday, a break above 1360 would turn the medium-term trend back to bullish. I'd like to wait one more day though before turning bullish again to see whether yesterday's move was real or just fake. But if we can hold above 1360, the next objective should be 1420-30.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 September 2013

The market rallied after the FOMC announcement and the Dow is now near its August highs:

(link to previous count)

I think this wave from 14750 is soon over. Unless the August highs convincingly break, we should see a correction over the next few days.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Gold ~ 17 September 2013

Gold had a horrible September so far declining back to 1300:

Despite the recent sell-off I wouldn't count gold out just yet - at least as long as 1280ish holds. Seasonality has worked pretty well so far this year. We got a weak first half of the year which was followed by a recovery starting in early July.

The next three weeks are usually very bullish so there is still hope for prices well above 1400 later this year. 1360 needs to be regained though to turn the medium-term trend back to bullish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

EUR/USD ~ 16 September 2013

After finding support at 1.315 the EUR/USD is now approaching 1.34 again. If we reverse there, we should decline back to 1.315. If it breaks, 1.37 should be the next target.

(link to previous post)

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 September 2013

The markets are up again today. The SPX jumps above 1700, the Dow Jones above 15500:

(link to previous count)

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Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 13 September 2013

So far, today looks like Wednesday and last Friday. An early sell-off followed by a quick rebound:

Thus, it looks like the bottom is in for today. The next target is 1697 but I doubt that we'll see it today.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Globex ~ 13 September 2013

If 1670-75 holds, we could see 1690ish soon.

We're now on the December contract. Previous prices (and hence price targets) were adjusted and thus might not match the numbers of my previous post anymore.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 September 2013

As I mentioned on Tuesday, if the SPX managed to break 1685ish, the count wouldn't look that great anymore. The break hasn't been that convincing but still I think it's time to look at other possibilities.

Below is an alternative count (shown for the Dow Jones).

It's very possible that wave (4) is already over. If so, wave (5) is underway now. In this bull market fifth waves tend to be very short. Thus, I don't expect it to be as long as wave (1) or (3). Looking at the previous waves in this bull market wave (5) being 0.5 to 0.62 of wave (1) seems reasonable. These figures lead to a target for wave (5) of 16200 to 16600.

The count is void if we decline below the August lows and highly unlikely if we drop below 14950ish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Crude Oil ~ 11 September 2013

Since my last update, which was quite a while back, crude oil has broken the triangle and rallied as high as $110.

110-115 is a strong resistance area and thus the sideways trading we've seen during the last weeks isn't surprising. I think that if oil doesn't drop below 98ish, there is a good chance to eventually break the resistance area and rally even higher.


(An updated Elliott wave count for the SPX will follow tomorrow before the market opens)

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Author: Patrick Eugster

ES ~ Globex ~ 11 September 2013

The ES has been trading around the resistance at 1680ish all night.

If the resistance breaks, we should see a rally to 1695ish. If it holds though, a pull back to around 1665 should follow.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 10 September 2013

The SPX hit my second target (1685ish) for this potential B wave today:

(link to previous count)

1685ish is pretty much the maximum allowed for this wave B. If we break above it, something else seems to be underway.

A convincing break below 1665ish should be a good indication that wave C of (4) (link to medium-term count) is underway. The target for wave C would be 1600ish.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

Gold ~ 10 September 2013

Gold is pulling back and approaching the support at 1350ish.

If this level holds, we should see higher prices later this year.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 10 September 2013

The SPX broke 1669ish yesterday which cleared the way for a rally to 1685ish. Overnight the futures rallied and we're already near my second target for this wave:

If 1685ish holds, we could see a close of today's gap (1672). If it breaks, the rally should continue to 1700 or even 1710.

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Author: Patrick Eugster

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 9 September 2013

The SPX almost hit my first target (1669ish) today:

(link to previous count)

If 1669ish is broken, 1685ish should be the next target.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 5 September 2013

(link to previous count)

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 September 2013

(link to previous count)

USD/JPY ~ 3 September 2013

The USD/JPY broke out of a triangle. If we stay above 98.5ish, we should rally towards this year's highs:

EUR/USD ~ 3 September 2013

The EUR/USD is at the support at 1.315ish. If we reverse here, we should rally back towards 1.34. If it breaks though, a sell-off to 1.275ish is likely:

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 September 2013

The last count became void when the market declined below 1657 last week. Just a few days earlier the break above this level triggered the alleged B wave rally.

It looks like the decline from 1709 to 1627 was wave A and that wave B is now underway. Possible targets for this rally are 1669 and 1685.

(link to previous count)

If 1627 breaks, this count becomes void and a subsequent sell-off to below 1600 is likely.

ES ~ Labor Day ~ 2 September 2013

The futures rallied on Labor Day. The ES is up 1 %:

If the ES holds above 1640, it looks like we could see 1665ish this week.