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| (link to previous count) |
It looks like we have completed a motive wave at 1800ish. However, the SPX has been very bullish over the last few days and weeks and thus, until we get a big reversal the trend continues to be up.
If the SPX declines below 1770, I think that a bigger correction is underway. I expect this correction to be of similar length as the previous ones, i. e. around 80 to 120 points.
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| (link to previous count) |
The higher we go, the more it looks like that we are in a (black) wave [3] and not in a (black) wave [C]. For now, both scenarios are still possible though:
If we are in a wave [3], we should see a correction next year, similar to 2011, followed by a wave [5] to 2000+.
If we are in a wave [C] though, we should decline heavily starting next year as shown in the chart below (down to pink e in the bottom right corner):
As mentioned in previous posts, these long-term counts should be taken with a grain of salt. There are just too many ways of counting long-term waves. So, in my opinion, it doesn't really add any value.
Author: Patrick Eugster
