Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Thursday, October 16, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 October 2014
The break of 1905 confirmed that the Primary wave that started in 2011 is over. The SPX already lost 200 handles from the top - the biggest decline since 2011.
Below you see my bearish long-term count (I'll post a more bullish one later).
It's possible that we entered a new bear market. However, for now, it's way too early to tell. But even if this is just a correction, I think a decline to the lower trendline is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Below you see my bearish long-term count (I'll post a more bullish one later).
It's possible that we entered a new bear market. However, for now, it's way too early to tell. But even if this is just a correction, I think a decline to the lower trendline is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Sunday, October 12, 2014
S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ 12 October 2014
The Dow and the SPX broke below the lower trendline:
It looks like the trend is down now. I still prefer to see a decline below the August low before turning long-term bearish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like the trend is down now. I still prefer to see a decline below the August low before turning long-term bearish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ 8 October 2014
The Dow and the SPX hit the lower trendlines again today:
As long as these trendlines hold, the long-term trend is still up.
If 17140ish and 1984ish break, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As long as these trendlines hold, the long-term trend is still up.
If 17140ish and 1984ish break, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, October 3, 2014
S&P 500/Dow Jones ~ EOD ~ 3 October 2014
The SPX and the Dow hit my target levels yesterday and then started to rally again.
If the Dow breaks 17140ish, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again at 17400ish.
A rally above 1984ish should clear the way for new highs.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If the Dow breaks 17140ish, we should see a rally to the upper trendline again at 17400ish.
A rally above 1984ish should clear the way for new highs.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 1 October 2014
The SPX hit my target at 1944ish:
We could see a at least a short-term rally now.
Author: Patrick Eugster
We could see a at least a short-term rally now.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, September 29, 2014
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 29 September 2014
As long as we are below 1984 I think the next target should still be 1944ish:
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, September 25, 2014
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 25 September 2014
The SPX lost 32 handles today after breaking the support at 1984:
The next target should be 1944.
Author: Patrick Eugster
The next target should be 1944.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
S&P 500 ~ EOD ~ 24 September 2014
Once again, the SPX turned at the support at 1984ish:
As long as this level holds, the medium-term trend is still up. If it breaks, a decline to 1944ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As long as this level holds, the medium-term trend is still up. If it breaks, a decline to 1944ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, September 22, 2014
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 22 September 2014
If the strong support level.at 17130ish breaks, the Dow Jones could decline to the lower trendline again, currently at 16600.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, September 18, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 18 September 2014
It's rather difficult to tell whether the decline to 1980 was a fourth wave, as shown in the chart below, or only a second wave of a much larger motive wave up.
Whatever the case may be, I think the next stop is 2040ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Whatever the case may be, I think the next stop is 2040ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 17 September 2014
So far, the diagonal looks pretty good. For a long-term count see here: http://www.wavaholic.com/2014/09/dow-jones-elliott-wave-count-11.html
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Intraday ~ 16 September 2014
The bears tried repeatedly but eventually failed to break 1984ish convincingly. The SPX broke out of the declining channel today and should now head towards the all-time highs.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, September 15, 2014
Gold ~ 15 September 2014
Gold has been declining since early July and is quickly approaching the strong support at 1200. If this level holds, we should get a bounce to the declining trendline, currently at 1325ish.
If 1200 breaks though, a sell-off to 1000 could occur.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If 1200 breaks though, a sell-off to 1000 could occur.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 15 September 2014
The SPX is trading right at the support at 1984ish. As said in earlier posts, if this level holds, the current correction is only short-term and we should see higher prices soonish. If it is convincingly broken though, a decline to 1945ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 9 September 2014
The SPX hit the support at 1984ish today. As long as this level holds, I still think that we'll see higher prices. However, as long as 2010 isn't broken, we're in neutral territory.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, September 8, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 8 September 2014
The sell-off in the EUR/USD continues and we're quickly approaching the very strong support area at 1.275-1.28. I expect at least a small bounce at this level.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 8 September 2014
It looks like 1990 was the low of wave [iv]. Hence, we should be in wave [v] now. As mentioned in some of my earlier posts, a rally to the rising trendline, currently at 2030ish, should follow next if 2010ish is broken convincingly.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, September 5, 2014
ES ~ Intraday ~ 5 September 2014
The S&P futures continue to fluctuate between 1990-1993 and 2010:
It looks like we're on our way to 2010 again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like we're on our way to 2010 again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, September 4, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 September 2014
The SPX has fluctuated around 2000 for the last two weeks and hasn't decided yet whether to continue the rally or not. I still think that a continuation to 2040 is possible. However, if 1984ish doesn't hold, 2011 is most likely a medium-term high. In that case, the market should move towards the lower trendline currently sitting at around 1930.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
EUR/USD ~ 4 September 2014
As mentioned two days ago, if 1.31ish breaks, 1.28ish should be the next target.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
GDX ~ 3 September 2014
After two horrendous years, gold miners have stabilized and rallied about 20 % so far this year.
It looks like the GDX has formed an inverse H&S over the last 18 months.
If 28 is broken, we should see 31 next.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like the GDX has formed an inverse H&S over the last 18 months.
If 28 is broken, we should see 31 next.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market ~ 3 September 2014
Overnight, futures rallied and hit new all-time highs at ES 2011.
The last six days the SPX traded within a narrow range around 2000. If we can break 2005ish convincingly today, we should leave this range and head towards the trendline at 2030-40.
Author: Patrick Eugster
The last six days the SPX traded within a narrow range around 2000. If we can break 2005ish convincingly today, we should leave this range and head towards the trendline at 2030-40.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 2 September 2014
My initial target for the EUR/USD after we broke 1.37 in May was 1.34ish. The EUR/USD hit this level in late July and then spent three weeks at this support level before eventually breaking it and selling off to 1.315ish:
As you can see in the chart, 1.31-1.32 is another support level. If it breaks, 1.28ish seems to be the next target. If it holds though and we can rally above 1.322, we should see 1.335ish again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As you can see in the chart, 1.31-1.32 is another support level. If it breaks, 1.28ish seems to be the next target. If it holds though and we can rally above 1.322, we should see 1.335ish again.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 2 September 2014
As mentioned yesterday, it looks like we are at the end of a Primary wave (black [3] or [C]). If that's the case, a big correction should follow (like in 2011) or even a new bear market could start.
In the last three years, there were nine pullbacks. Four of them were around 84 points, three of them around 130 (the largest was 156 points). Moreover, no pullback declined below the low of the previous pullback, i. e. we got a series of higher lows (and higher highs).
Hence, unless we get a decline that exceeds 130ish points and dips below 1905 (the low of the previous pullback), the uptrend is intact and thus, pullbacks should be bought.
Author: Patrick Eugster
In the last three years, there were nine pullbacks. Four of them were around 84 points, three of them around 130 (the largest was 156 points). Moreover, no pullback declined below the low of the previous pullback, i. e. we got a series of higher lows (and higher highs).
Hence, unless we get a decline that exceeds 130ish points and dips below 1905 (the low of the previous pullback), the uptrend is intact and thus, pullbacks should be bought.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, September 1, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 1 September 2014
Hi all,
It's been in a long time since my last update! I posted my last Elliott wave count ten weeks ago. In the meantime, the SPX climbed 50 points and reached the 2000 level. Despite this, my count is still valid and thus I haven't changed anything except for adding the proper subwaves:
It looks like the rally which started three years ago is soon coming to an end as we seem to be in a fifth of a fifth of a Primary wave. The waves actually line up pretty well with the end of QE in October which will likely have a negative impact on the market.
Medium- and short-term counts follow tomorrow morning.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It's been in a long time since my last update! I posted my last Elliott wave count ten weeks ago. In the meantime, the SPX climbed 50 points and reached the 2000 level. Despite this, my count is still valid and thus I haven't changed anything except for adding the proper subwaves:
It looks like the rally which started three years ago is soon coming to an end as we seem to be in a fifth of a fifth of a Primary wave. The waves actually line up pretty well with the end of QE in October which will likely have a negative impact on the market.
Medium- and short-term counts follow tomorrow morning.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 24 June 2014
The last few days went as expected. We got a short-term correction last week followed by a rally to new highs:
It looks like wave 3 is already completed. If so, we should see a sideways correction over the next few weeks.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like wave 3 is already completed. If so, we should see a sideways correction over the next few weeks.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 17 June 2014
As long as we are below 1.37, the trend is down. I think 1.34ish is a likely target for this decline.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, June 12, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 June 2014
The expected correction is now underway:
As long as 1900ish holds, this correction should be just short-term though. It should be followed by rally to new highs.
Author: Patrick Eugster
As long as 1900ish holds, this correction should be just short-term though. It should be followed by rally to new highs.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, June 9, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 9 June 2014
The SPX is already above 1950:
I think we have seen most of wave [iii]. We may very well add another 2 or 3 % but I wouldn't be surprised if wave [iii] comes to an end this week. After that, we should see a small correction (wave [iv]) followed by another rally, probably to 2000.
Author: Patrick Eugster
I think we have seen most of wave [iii]. We may very well add another 2 or 3 % but I wouldn't be surprised if wave [iii] comes to an end this week. After that, we should see a small correction (wave [iv]) followed by another rally, probably to 2000.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 4 June 2014
So far, so good. The SPX is already near 1930:
If we're in a third wave, the market could add another 2-3 % over the next few days.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If we're in a third wave, the market could add another 2-3 % over the next few days.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thursday, May 29, 2014
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 29 May 2014
The rally continues today despite a decline in the US GDP.
It looks like wave [iii] is underway. If that's the case, a target of 1960ish is likely:
Some readers pointed out that we could be in an ending diagonal and thus upside would be limited to about 1920-30. This is a valid alternative and I'll closely look how the market reacts over the next few days. If the SPX breaks below 1900 convincingly, this alternative may very well be underway.
Author: Patrick Eugster
It looks like wave [iii] is underway. If that's the case, a target of 1960ish is likely:
Some readers pointed out that we could be in an ending diagonal and thus upside would be limited to about 1920-30. This is a valid alternative and I'll closely look how the market reacts over the next few days. If the SPX breaks below 1900 convincingly, this alternative may very well be underway.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, May 23, 2014
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
USD/JPY ~ 20 May 2014
The USD/JPY is once again at the support at 101ish. If it holds, a rally to 102.5ish or even 104ish is possible. If it breaks, a decline to 99ish is likely
Author: Patrick Eugster
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, May 16, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 16 May 2014
The EUR/USD is now right at the support level:
If this level holds, we may go back to 1.40. If it breaks though, a sell-off to 1.34ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If this level holds, we may go back to 1.40. If it breaks though, a sell-off to 1.34ish is likely.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 16 May 2014
The SPX never broke 1897 convincingly and then broke below 1885ish which lead to a sell-off to 1865ish yesterday.
For now, the [i]-[ii] count looks still decent. However, as before, we need a convincing break above 1897ish to confirm this count.
Author: Patrick Eugster
For now, the [i]-[ii] count looks still decent. However, as before, we need a convincing break above 1897ish to confirm this count.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 13 May 2014
Depending on how you draw the lower trend line, the EUR/USD is now slightly below or right at the trend line:
Thus, despite breaking the first trend line, it's probably best to wait for a break below 1.367ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Thus, despite breaking the first trend line, it's probably best to wait for a break below 1.367ish.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Monday, May 12, 2014
Gold ~ 12 May 2014
Gold has been trading between 1200 and 1400 for about a year now. As long as we stay in this range, the long-term trend is neutral.
Medium-term the situation looks very similar. Support is at 1280 and resistance at 1330. Until we break either of these levels, the medium-term trend is also neutral.
Author: Patrick Eugster
Medium-term the situation looks very similar. Support is at 1280 and resistance at 1330. Until we break either of these levels, the medium-term trend is also neutral.
Author: Patrick Eugster
S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 12 May 2014
So far, things are looking pretty good.
If 1885 holds for the next two days or we convincingly break 1897 tomorrow, we should be in wave [iii]
Author: Patrick Eugster
If 1885 holds for the next two days or we convincingly break 1897 tomorrow, we should be in wave [iii]
Author: Patrick Eugster
Friday, May 9, 2014
EUR/USD ~ 9 May 2014
The EUR/USD hit the upper trend line and then declined to the lower trend line of the rising wedge:
If we get a convincing break below it, 1.34 should be the first target.
Author: Patrick Eugster
If we get a convincing break below it, 1.34 should be the first target.
Author: Patrick Eugster
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